Introduction
After the Cold War, the US has been the major world power together with Europe and China. However, today we can see that the picture of the world is gradually changing. The US still remains the superpower, but there is a growth in other countries’ power, too. They gain in military forces and develop their technology. They seem to plan their budget better that they used to because in a very short time they have gotten hold of the whole world’s finances. So, it seems that the next quarter of a century is going to end up in global instability. Although military actions are uncertain, it is possible to predict economic crises and environmental problems.
Analysis
The liberal pattern of world politics is all about countries depending on each other economically. It is believed that such dependence results in peace all over the world because no country would benefit from attacking its allies. Besides, all individual members of the global community would be safe since they would be protected by the combined forces of the partnering states. But, while the US is looking forward to setting a liberal democratic pattern, it also spends more than $500 billion a year on its defense. The reason for it can be that not all the countries in the world want to establish this pattern. People may want such a pattern, but not the governments. In fact, as countries emerge, they seek to gain as much power as they can to confront the global system, at the head of which there is the US. Such countries as Russia, China, and Brazil are struggling to gain influence on the world arena.
For example, Russia exports oil to its probable enemies which helps it to control them. At the same time, although its technology lags behind, China has almost twice as many troops as the US. China and Russia are using an autocratic pattern of power, and their governments control the TV and the Web. So, it is unlikely that they embrace liberal democracy. But it seems that the US maintains the biggest army in the world just in case of war. Ikenberry says that attacks will only cause counter-attacks, like with Russia’s annexation of Ukraine. Besides, the mayhem of WWII with millions dead and the development of nuclear weapons show us that if humanity goes into another global war, it will probably not make it through. So, it is unlikely that there will be more wars in the future if only interregional conflicts.
It seems more reasonable that countries will try to measure their power without war. Nowadays, the world is constructed as a multipolar system that has room for cooperation and many possibilities. But, Posen states, in these conditions countries will seek to improve their military power without actually using it. At that point, the contrast between economic power and defense is very stark. For example, India spends only $38 billion on its army, but it has almost the same number of troops as the US with its $577 billion. Posen also says that the multipolar world will be turned into unipolar for a while, with the US as the leader. But the situation will not be stable since being a superpower is very expensive, and even the economy as big as the US cannot cope with it for a long time. Rather, with the development of such countries as China, Brazil, the UAE, etc., and the concentration of finance in these countries, the US will probably lose some of its positions as the economic superpower, resulting in some crises. So, it is likely that the world will be divided into fragments concentrating around big powers and picking at one another from time to time.
Many international businesses make a point of being environmentalists and try to reduce the damage they do to the Earth. The US is working with China on the “green fuel”, and there is an overall trend in using solar energy and the power of the wind. But there are predictions of serious disasters that can happen because too much harm is already done. Various sources predict volcano explosions, tsunamis, earthquakes, and wildfires. Besides, the climate is changing for the worse. Such changes cause further changes in the ecosystem. It results in worse fertility of the soil, and, despite the floods, there is not enough clean water. If the world is a unipolar system, as Posen says, it will be hard for the US to deal with the crises. Even in the countries work on it together, the situation is going to be very unstable.
Conclusion
To sum it up, the overall situation of the world will probably become worse. Although many countries gain in military power, the war is unlikely. But there will probably be a fight for economic power between the countries that have grown since the Cold War such as China, India, Russia, etc. Besides, there are serious environmental problems. Together these factors are likely to result in global instability for the next 25 years.