Introduction
Statistical calculations in healthcare can be used for many reasons, such as estimating the risk of an infection or finding grounds for specific events. In the present case study, among 20 patients in a hospital ward, several became sick after an evening meal. The hospital suspects a possible link between this adverse event and the food served to patients – BBQ. A review of the probability of it being the cause is necessary to investigate this connection. An odd ratio calculation can be performed to see whether a link exists between people eating BBQ and becoming ill.
Odd Ratio Calculation
The odds ratio in this scenario is based on how many patients ate or did not eat the meal and how many became sick afterward. One must understand that odds ratios compare two different probabilities of an event to find out the answer. In this case, one can examine the relationship between people who got sick at the BBQ and other groups. The odds for each group are based on dividing the number of ill patients by the total number of patients and then dividing this result by the ratio of healthy people.
For example, the likelihood of people becoming sick from eating BBQ is 5 (a) divided by 8 (a+b), which equals 0.625. Next, the chance of this event not occurring is 3 (b) divided by 8, which is 0.375. The ratio results for this scenario are 0.625 / 0.375 = 1.7 (Macera et al., 2012). Therefore, patients in this group had the odds of becoming sick from eating BBQ equal to 1.7.
Second, the same calculations can be performed for people who demonstrated signs of illness but did not eat the BBQ, which was 2 (c) out of 12 (c+d) people. For this group, the odds were (2/12)/(10/12) = 0.2. Finally, the odds ratio between these two numbers is found by dividing 1.7 by 0.2 and is equal to 8.5. This result explains the difference between the risks of developing symptoms in the two groups.
From these numbers, one can see that the odds of people becoming sick from eating BBQ appear much higher than those who chose not to eat this meal. The odds of 1.7 are significantly higher than 0.2, which raises the suspicion that something might have been wrong with the products or their preparation. People who ate the BBQ had a much higher risk of becoming sick – 8,5 times more than those who did not.
If the odds ratio is above 1, it signifies an increased risk of an event, pointing to its possible cause (George et al., 2020; Ramakrishnan et al., 2022). Similarly, odds ratios below one do not show any strong correlation between an adverse incident and its possible influence (Furcada et al., 2020). Thus, eating the BBQ can be viewed as a significant risk factor for becoming ill, and it could have been the cause for this sudden onset of sickness.
Conclusion
In conclusion, the case study demonstrates how odds ratios can be used to analyze a problem and find potential roots and causes. In this hospital ward, the food could have caused the sickness of several patients because the ratio between patients who ate it and became sick and those who did not was several times higher than 1. This comparison between these groups demonstrates that BBQ was a very high-risk factor.
References
Furcada, J. M., Patino, C. M., & Ferreira, J. C. (2020). Estimating risk in clinical studies: Odds ratio and risk ratio. Jornal Brasileiro de Pneumologia, 46(02), 1. Web.
George, A., Stead, T. S., & Ganti, L. (2020). What’s the risk: Differentiating risk ratios, odds ratios, and hazard ratios? Cureus, 12(8). Web.
Macera, C. A., Shaffer, R., & Shaffer, P. M. (2012). Introduction to epidemiology: Distribution and determinants of disease. Cengage Learning US.
Rajakrishnan, S., Ismail, M. Z. H., Jamalulail, S. H., Alias, N., Ismail, H., Taib, S. M., Cheng, L. S., Zakiman, Z., Richai, O., Silverdurai, R. R., & Yusof, M. P. (2022). Investigation of a foodborne outbreak at a mass gathering in PetalingDistrict, Selangor, Malaysia. Western Pacific Surveillance and Response Journal: WPSAR, 13(1), 1-5. Web.