Forecast for the development of the market for the coming year is usually done “in the form of predictions about market processes.” (Rosenberg, 2007) Predictions for the functioning of different markets are, as a rule, made for the entrepreneurs to anticipate the possible decline or boost of the market. To make the list of these predictions the entrepreneurs compare the market events which they can predict with the actual situation at the market. In case any of “their predictions about the market does not conform with the observed market situation, then by means of … the principle of modus tollens [deductive logic] entrepreneurs are able to conclude that not all their supposed knowledge can be true.” (Harper, 1996) The predictions drawn up by the entrepreneurs for the IT market in 2009 included deep global recession and transformation of the IT market the interaction of which resulted in a number of changes within the market; the number of positive changes brought into the IT market equals the number of negative changes but this does not mean that the IT market will stay in balance.
To begin with, six out of ten predictions for the IT market development promise positive changes within the market. These changes include consolidation and expansion of telecom industry, acceleration of information access and analysis, and catalyzing of IT industry growth. The year 2009 is also expected to be beneficial for green technologies which will be recognized as cost-cutting and for online economy which is going to boost – more than 1.5 billion people are expected to go online “driving over $8 trillion in online sales.” (Gens, 2008) These positive changes will transform the IT market bringing innovations and developing the already existing industries.
Negative changes in the IT market in 2009 are fewer, though they should also be taken into account. Transformation of the IT market will entail the reduction of the IT growth by half, destruction of the business/personal wall in IT, the expansion of the IT industry “to the cloud”, flattening of the volume growth in mobile phones, and slow development of small businesses and emerging markets. Each of the industries these negative predictions concern should use its strengths to the full extent for these temporary changes not to destroy them.
However, the fact that top ten predictions for the IT market in 2009 revealed that the participants of the market should expect both negative and positive changes in equal qualities, does not necessarily mean that the market will be in balance in 2009 because more than one industry functioning within the IT market will be affected. “Forecast in many prediction markets may be interrelated, and so participants in one prediction market will often have incentives to take into account developments in others,” (Abramowicz, 2008) which allows the markets affecting each other. This means that expansion of telecom industry, green technologies, online economy, etc. may to some extent positively affect the overall growth of the IT.
In sum, the number of negative and positive predictions for the IT market in 2009 is equal and the development of industries which the market encompasses may be uneven. The industries are in constant interaction with each other and it is possible that those which will experience development in 2009 will positively influence those industries which were predicted to decline.
References
Abramowicz, M., 2008. Predictocracy: market mechanisms for public and private decision making. Yale University Press.
Gens, F., 2008. Top 10 Predictions. Global Headquaters: Framingam, USA.
Harper, D.A., 1996. Entrepreneurship and the Market Process: An Enquiry Into the Growth of Knowledge. Routledge.
Rosenberg, A., 2007. Philosophy of Social Science. Perseus Books.