Introduction: Incidence and Prevalence
Estimates vary widely, not least because of varying methodology. For instance, Brown (2005) remarks at the wide disparity between the 44,700 annual incidence of child sexual abuse reported by the National Centre on Child Sexual Abuse and Neglect (circa 2000) and the 336,200 offenses Safafino estimated in 1981. As to prevalence estimates, these vary widely from 3% to 71% of American children being affected by such malfeasance. The best that can be said, Brown maintains, is that a meta-analysis of 19 surveys by Finkelhor put prevalence as at least 20% of females and 5% to 10% of men.
Situational and Victim Characteristics
Federal records suggest that the majority of all sexual assault victims are young. Concededly dated data about convicted molesters from the Bureau of Justice Statistics (BJS, 2007) reveals that 60% of offenders released from prison in 1994 had preyed on children 13 years or younger.
Child molesters victimize adolescents and young children in roughly equal proportions. Trends for 1991 to 1996 drawn from reports by law enforcement agencies of 12 States and compiled into the National Incident-Based Reporting System (NIBRS) reveal that precisely two-thirds of sexual assault victims were juveniles under 18 years of age. Of these, over half were 11 years or younger and around 10% were under 6 years of age (Snyder, 2000).
Risk by age differs for the predominant sex assault crimes (see “Types of Sexual Contact” below). For instance, 14 year-olds are the most at risk for fondling, followed by victims 4 years of age. Rape is likeliest when victims are 10 to 14 years old. Sadly, sodomy and penetration with objects peak for victims aged 3 or 4 years old.
As to gender, females unsurprisingly comprise the lion’s share of victims: 69% for all types of sexual assaults perpetrated on those younger than 6 years, 73% for all children under 12 years, and 82% during the adolescent years. What does stand out, however, is that male victims are such a substantial minority of sexual assaults: no less than 27% of children under 12 molested or assaulted are boys. On reaching adulthood (19+ years), victims are almost wholly female (95% share).
Characteristics of the Typical Offender
What are pedophiles and child molesters like? By age, they span any age from adolescence to middle age. So far as the BJS can determine from inmate profiles alone (1997), such offenders tend to be older by an average of five years than those arrested for crimes against adults; child molesters are about two-and-a-half times likelier than the latter to be 40 years of age or older. Nonetheless, the obverse of the data is that three-fourths of child molesters are age 39 or younger. At the other extreme of age, in fact, Snyder (2000) found that nearly half (40%) of those victimizing pre-school children were juveniles. This belies the stereotype of the molester as a “dirty old man.”
On release from prison, the states now impose mandatory registration and public notification for sex offenders. Despite this, how sizeable is the risk that one’s family members will run afoul of an ex-convict who will reprise his nefarious offense?
A rough national projection based on BJS (2007) records for 15 states suggests there were around 14,300 child molesters released in 1994. Setting aside townships, this figure for child molesters returned to the community works out at one in every two cities (an estimated 30,000) all across the nation.
What about the probability that pedophiles at large will lapse right back into their unhealthy compulsions? Employing the Association of State Correctional Administrators (ASCA) approach to calculating recidivism based on a released offender being convicted or tried again within three years after release (Montana Dept. of Corrections, 2008), BJS reports that 3.3% of all those released in 1994 had committed a sex crime on a child again by 1997. Given the “normal odds” that there is one released pedophile in every other city, the chances are one in 60 that a child of yours will be victimized if you reside in a medium or small city. If 30 released molesters reside in your ZIP code or where your child goes to school, odds are that one of them will commit the same offense again within three years after release from prison. These are low odds but no responsible parent likes their children harmed in any way.
It stands to reason that men are the reported perpetrators in 96% of all child and adult sexual assaults. However, women were reported to be the offenders in 3% to 12% of child and juvenile sexual assaults (Snyder, 2000). Given that males comprised up to 27% of child sexual assault victims, the implication is that around 13% of assaults on boys were perpetrated by males, ergo homosexual pedophiles engaged in fondling or pederasts performing sodomy on young boys.
Types of Sexual Contact
Child sexual assault is more likely to consist of fondling alone, at least as reported to the law, followed by rape, sodomy and penetration with an object.
The 12-state survey of assaults reported to law enforcement agencies characterized the crimes into four classes: rape, forcible sodomy, sexual assault with an object, and forcible fondling (Snyder, 2000). Forcible fondling is the most prevalent crime where both juvenile and child victims are concerned. Rape, the second most prevalent sexual assault regardless of age of victim, rears its ugly head when victims are 12 to 17 years old.
As to the peripheral offenses of sodomy (8% of all assaults across ages) and penetration with an object (4%), around three-fourths are perpetrated on young victims.
References
Brown, S. (2005).Treating sex offenders: an introduction to sex offender treatment programmes. Devon, UK: William Publishing.
Bureau of Justice Statistics (2007). Criminal Offenders Statistics. Web.
Montana Dept. of Corrections (2008). Recidivism definition adopted. Correctional Signpost, Summer, pp. 1-2.
Snyder, H. N. (2000). Sexual assault of young children as reported to law enforcement: Victim, incident and offender characteristics. Office of Justice Programs, U.S. Dept. of Justice. Web.