Future Global Tourism Trends
Many sectors of the economy have been disrupted by the COVID-19 pandemic worldwide. Several new approaches and policies have been adopted in response to the impact. Tourism is one of the most affected industries, primarily due to the travel restrictions and physical distancing as measures to help counter the spread of the virus. According to OECD (2020), in the year 2020, an 80% decrease in international tourism was witnessed.
However, Lew et al. (2020) note that local governments have endeavored to revive the sector through domestic tourism by taking impressive steps to reactivate and restore the industry while protecting businesses and jobs. In addition, several regions across the world have developed strategies to build a tourism economy that is more resilient to the COVID-19 pandemic and other global problems. Some of the measures taken include promoting a digital transition to a greener tourism system and supporting the industry’s sustainable recovery (Lew et al., 2020).
These actions are because the sector’s outlook remains highly uncertain since it is one of the hardest-hit industries. Thus, while international travel recovers from the COVID-19 pandemic, some trends are likely to characterize global tourism in the next few years.
The first feature that will characterize international tourism flows in the next few years is sanitary protection. Although the hopes of travelers and tourism businesses have been boosted by the positive news on the vaccines and their perceived success, the sector still faces many challenges. For some years to come, the industry is likely to alternate between highs and lows, while the vaccine research will take longer than expected (Lew et al., 2020).
In the meantime, the world will have to cope with the preventive measures put in place by the World Health Organization and the U.S. Centers for Disease Control and Prevention. Still, even after the success of the vaccines, most airplanes will be forced to carry below their standard carrying capacity to ensure sanitary protection to the travelers.
In previous times long before the COVID-19 pandemic, the sector has proven resilient to global emergencies, hiccups, pandemics and crises, but the coronavirus disease has made the road to recovery highly uncertain. In the next few years, Lew et al. (2020) predict that the travel restrictions are expected to be upheld, and comprehensive screening at the national and international borders are also deemed to remain. The reason for this projection is twofold; first, they have been successful in reducing the regional spread of the virus and second, travel is “central to disease surveillance and epidemiology” (Gössling et al., 2020, p.5).
In the international travel ports, such as dry land ports and airports, detailed screening of the travelers will be more thorough. Additionally, if the vaccines will be successful in protecting people against contracting the disease, a vaccination certificate will be a mandatory document for global travel alongside a travel passport.
The success of these measures will see many “anxious tourists spread their wings again” after a year of lockdown (Lew et al., 2020, p. 458). More steps are expected to be introduced while considering the guidance by U.S. Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC) and World Health Organization (WHO). Therefore, the first trend is increased sanitary protection coupled with making a vaccination certificate a mandatory travel document to prevent tourists from contracting the virus.
Another trend is the travel bubble in which the countries that have shown significant development in the containment of the COVID-19 will receive more tourists. Different nations have various levels of technological infrastructure and medical research capability. This fact means that some countries will have better strategies to handle the disease ahead of others. If this happens, the first step to boost the economy would be to open inbound tourism to save the highly vulnerable sector.
For example, developing countries will wait longer to enjoy international travel benefits because they do not have adequate infrastructure to handle the pandemic (OECD, 2020). The developed world, which has already discovered and approved vaccines, has not started to receive tourists, but their tourism will be back ahead of developing nations.
With time, some containment measures will be lifted depending on the prevailing epidemiological situation. On the other hand, the countries indicating a higher prevalence of the virus and inadequate containment measures will significantly decline tourism. Thus, owing to this travel bubble trend, the once leading tourist destinations will no longer be at their best unless they improve their containment measures to make visitors feel safe visiting them.
Effects of These Trends on the Cuba and the Dominican Republic
It is expected that tourism-related businesses will be fighting insolvency in the next few years because of the adverse effect COVID-19 has had on the sector. Tour operators, accommodation services, aviation, and cruise lines are essential elements of the tourism value chain and will continue to struggle to remain in operation.
Many airlines will be driven to technical bankruptcy because most international flights will either be grounded or restricted, according to the report by the Centre for Aviation (World Bank, 2021). In the Caribbean region, Royal Caribbean International, one of the major cruise companies, will be forced to increase its rates and domestic tourism will be more adversely affected than the inbound one. The subsectors of food and accommodation services represent almost 60% of the tourism sector and provide many job opportunities in the Caribbean (International Labor Organization, 2020).
In Cuba, the number of jobs in the tourism sector has been increasing since 2010 (Lopez, 2020). Therefore, depending on the epidemiological situation, some businesses in the Caribbean will be forced to cut down on operating costs and remain afloat, and sacking some of their employees will be one of them.
Moreover, even the countries that used to receive many tourists before the pandemic will be forced to ensure sanitary protection of the visitors if they must enjoy the benefits. The Dominican Republic and Cuba are the leading in tourism in the Caribbean region (Murphy et al., 2020). Many people have invested in the sector, and numerous employment opportunities have been created as a result. However, the level of tourism benefits these countries will gain depends on how they will manage the disease in the next few years. Due to the travel bubble trend, visitors will be more attracted to those destinations with proper containment measures and lower incidences of coronavirus disease.
Cuba and The Dominican Republic have experienced major COVID-19 outbreaks, yet these economies significantly depend on tourism (Murphy et al., 2020). Therefore, with the travel bubble trend, tourism in these two Caribbean countries will be adversely affected if they do not adopt practical containment measures. However, suppose their governments do not reverse decisions such as the premature reopening of airports and borders. In that case, many tourists will be scared away from this, and they will see their GDP drop significantly.
Tourism and the Achievement of Sustainable Development Goals
Tourism and Clean Water and Sanitation for All
Tourism is an essential tool to use to achieve sustainable development goals (SDGs). The sector has the most dynamic and perspective businesses in the world (Saarinen, 2020). These goals are a universal call for all governments worldwide to take transformative measures to attain Vision 2030. The two SDGs that tourism can help achieve are the sixth, clean water and sanitation, and eleventh, sustainable cities and communities.
There is a need to make better sanitation and clean water available for the world community, and tourism can help make this possible. The amount of clean water available on the planet is sufficient for everyone, but many people still do not have access to it because of poor infrastructure and the economy (Utheim, 2021). Additionally, with population growth and climate change effects, there are acute shortages of clean water in many parts of the world. First, since most tourist activities need reliable sanitation and clean water, tourism can help achieve this SDG.
Additionally, when a government invests in local infrastructure in tourism, the community around the tourist site, such as beaches and coastlines, will benefit significantly (Streimikiene et al., 2020). Besides, most people do not have the financial ability to drill fresh groundwater into their homes, but when the government avails this water for tourism activities, the surrounding communities will also benefit from the obtainability.
The second way that tourism can help support sustainable management and availability of water and better sanitation is by redirecting the revenue to help support individual projects aimed at achieving this SDG. According to Utheim (2021), in most developing countries, the sanitary conditions are poor, leading to public health hazards.
Therefore, a part of the revenue generated by the tourism sector can be used to build toilets to ensure hygiene and sanitation for all. In addition, these funds can also be injected into the conservation of water-related ecosystems such as wetlands, rivers, and mountains to reduce water scarcity since caring for nature provides clean water. This conservation will promote the availability of freshwater for use and improve sanitary conditions.
The third way tourism can enable achieving the sixth sustainable development goal is by limiting the amount used for tourist activities and supporting water projects worldwide. Water is a precious resource, and some of the ways tourism can effectively utilize it are pollution control, efficient use, and using technology. For example, an 18-hole golf course requires millions of liters of water to maintain every year, which could serve over 1000 households in the same period (Utheim, 2021).
Additionally, on average, one tourist can use between 300 and 2000 liters of water in a single day, while around 30 liters are used in a local home (Utheim, 2021). Thus, water consumption by tourism can be limited to help sustain surrounding communities to ensure sustainable management. Moreover, tourism companies can collaborate with local governments to support water-related technology, such as harvesting rainwater and purification and treatment. These businesses can include this effort as a part of their corporate social responsibility (CSR) to provide clean water to counter the impact of scarcity which adversely affects sanitation. Therefore, tourism can play a significant role in achieving this SDG.
Tourism and Sustainable Cities and Communities
Over the years, a significant number of people have moved to cities from their rural areas, making urbanization proliferate. At the moment, more than 50% of the world’s population lives in urban neighborhoods, and by 2030, a 10% increase is expected to reach 60% (Utheim, 2021). The main reasons for this migration are better opportunities such as jobs and trade and social benefits. With the overpopulation in cities and major towns, many problems have emerged, for example, the development of slums, diseases, poor sanitation, and increased crime rates.
According to Utheim (2021), cities consume around 60-80% of energy, and over 70% of greenhouse gas emissions are from these settlements. The residents of a municipality develop socially and economically when it functions properly, which underscores the need to ensure sustainable use of resources, which tourism can help attain.
One way tourism can contribute is through the indirect investment in advancing urban infrastructure and accessibility. The revenue generated from the sector can be ploughed back to help improve the city’s infrastructure to attract more tourists. For example, Jamaica’s hinterlands were converted due to tourism urbanization (Brooks, 2018). With more people settled in urban areas, there will be more need for inclusivity and safety, which tourism can help achieve.
The money generated from tourism can also improve security and provide the supply of energy; it is usually a necessity in urban settlements. For example, Blue Lagoon, a geothermal spa in Iceland, has been involved in many endeavours to improve the safety, sustainability, and resilience of most cities in the southwestern parts of the country (Helgadóttir et al., 2019).
The tourism business focuses on creating a community all the residents and visitors enjoy, prioritizing safety for all. Additionally, tourism businesses can also participate in the air pollution reduction efforts to create greener cities so that tourists enjoy fresh air when they visit, and the locals will also benefit from this transformation. Therefore, tourism can contribute to the infrastructure of urban centers to promote safety, inclusivity, and sustainability.
Another way tourism can help develop sustainable cities and communities is to preserve national and cultural heritage because they significantly matter to the sector. In most small island developing states (SIDS), where tourism is the main contributor to the GDP, especially in the Caribbean region, the industry has contributed to the sustainable development of many cities (Brooks, 2018). Places like museums, monuments, and archaeological sites are major tourist attractions, and if left in a dilapidated state, they will no longer be meaningful.
In Iceland, tourism has been a positive factor in improving the residents’ quality of life around tourist sites, thereby contributing to resilience (Helgadóttir et al., 2019). In the cities with these heritages, tourism should lead initiatives to renew and revamp them, which will make them sustainable. Therefore, tourism can transform cities and communities which would otherwise be rendered in a state of disrepair.
Lastly, tourism can help support initiatives aimed at improving the livelihoods of local communities. For instance, the travel and tourism industry investors can include such a plan in their corporate social responsibility. An excellent example is on the north coast of Jamaica, where tourism businesses have connected locals with freshwater (Brooks, 2018).
This is a good way of giving back to the community and improving their well-being. Moreover, the sector can also endeavour to invest in green infrastructure, including reducing air and water pollution to ensure residents’ lives are free of hazards. Another instance is in Iceland, where Blue Lagoon’s philanthropic efforts are an essential part of its CSR.
It has supported the health, culture, and well-being of the local communities and youth sports (Helgadóttir et al., 2019). Similarly, Cuban Adventures spread financial benefits to the local people to improve their livelihoods (Milwood, 2020). These are some of the ways tourism can ensure the cities are smarter, sustainable, and green, thereby playing a significant role in achieving this sustainable development goal.
How Tourists Can Be Encouraged to Behave Responsibly
The previous sections of the paper have focused on the positive ways tourism can contribute to sustainable development. However, it is worth noting that tourism has its negative side, especially when tourists do not behave responsibly. The adverse effect of tourism is measured from social, economic, and environmental perspectives (Mathew and Sreejesh, 2017). This negative influence is contributed to by the visitors’ irresponsible conduct. In most cases, the surrounding community is affected more by these impacts, but sometimes the harm may spread across the destination country.
Negative Environmental Impact
First, from an ecological perspective, irresponsible tourist behaviors lead to pollution and depletion of local natural resources. The shortage of water in tourism-dependent economies, such as the Caribbean region, results from the overuse of water for tourist activities. For example, in a tropical country, over 50,000 litres of water are used to maintain a golf course in a year while the neighbouring communities struggle with water shortage.
Moreover, according to Walker et al. (2021), in the Caribbean, the amount of water one tourist uses in one day is adequate to serve a resident for a minimum of three days. The overuse of water by tourists and tourism-related functions results in acute scarcity of water in the surrounding households, exposing them to poor sanitary conditions, which can cause many public health hazards.
Further, tourists significantly contribute to environmental pollution directly and indirectly. For example, some visitors do not follow the proper waste disposal protocols, and they dump leftovers and cans anyhow, causing pollution because plastic is not biodegradable (Gomez, 2020). Additionally, the herbicides, pesticides, and fertilizers used to maintain golf courses may lead to soil and water contamination.
Besides, cruise ships emit a significant amount of greenhouse gases, such as carbon (IV) oxide, which lead to climate change, and there is an expected 25% rise in CO2 emissions (Gursoy and Nunkoo, 2019). Therefore, tourism can affect the environment negatively because of irresponsible tourist behavior.
Negative Social Impact
The first adverse social impact of tourism is the loss of cultural identity among the local community. In most cases, tourists come in with a set of foreign lifestyles, such as dressing, for example, bikinis, shorts, or bras alone, to which the people in the host communities are not used (O’Rourke and Koščak, 2019). As a result, their mannerisms and interaction of natives are affected in their attempt to copy the visitors, which prompts them to lose their native traditions and customs, leading to cultural erosion.
Moreover, to meet the demands of the tourists, local restaurants are converted to pubs and shops are fitted or stocked with products for visitors. As a result, the traditional lifestyle is snubbed, and in some instances, the residents turn to prostitution to meet the tourists’ sexual desires in exchange for money or gifts (Zgolli and Zaiem, 2018). Therefore, tourism adversely affects the social development of the destination country.
Negative Economic Impact
Although tourism has been identified to have the potential to promote the economic development of a place, it can also affect it negatively. Mathew and Sreejesh (2017) argue that, at times, tourism can derail the economic growth of the local communities. In most tourism-intense areas, the cost of goods and services is always higher than usual.
Although business owners make huge profits from this situation, the residents are adversely affected since they cannot afford it, especially during peak seasons. For example, Gursoy and Nunkoo (2019) argue that the prices of foods and drinks in a local restaurant are almost double during the high tourist season. Therefore, tourism has an adverse economic effect on the residents as they cannot afford the living standards, which are abnormally raised to the level of tourists.
Ways to Encourage Tourists to Behave Responsibly
Most of the adverse effects of tourism on the economy, environment, and culture result from irresponsible tourist behaviors. Gomez (2020) defines responsible tourism as the conduct by a traveler that contributed to the economic benefit of the locals and minimizes adverse effects on the environment and the destination country’s cultural and national heritage. The first measure to encourage responsible tourist behavior is for the Ministry of Tourism to develop policies to regulate the conduct of the travelers.
O’Rourke and Koščak (2019) emphasize that the development of these policies should involve collaborative efforts by the government and tourism businesses, and local communities. All irresponsible tourist behaviors can be listed alongside the consequences for their violation, produced in several languages.
On arrival at the airport, the visitors will be served with copies of these documents. Fletcher et al. (2017) add that the tour guides and operators can be tasked with ensuring their guests have read and understood the rules and regulations regarding their behavior while in the destination country. Therefore, such policies will encourage the travelers to conduct themselves well to contribute to economic and social development.
The second measure is for tourist businesses, including tour operators, shops, restaurants, and hotels, to invest in awareness initiatives aimed at encouraging their visitors to contribute towards sustainable development through responsible behavior. Mathew and Sreejesh (2017) suggest that this can be a formally organized seminar to take a day or two to welcome, remind, and caution the visitors to conduct themselves positively. The main aim of this conference should be to emphasize the government policies and focus more on the irresponsible actions and their possible consequences, including arrest and conviction or immediate deportation.
In addition, they can also be educated on the sustainable development goals and how tourism is a tool that can help the achievement of the SDGs. At the end of the seminar, the tourists will be required to sign to confirm that they have read and understood how to conduct themselves and the consequences of violating the regulations. This will be a good way to ensure they are well aware of the repercussions of their actions. It will also be an excellent strategy of encouraging them to behave responsibly to make the destination a better place for people to live and visit, thereby contributing to sustainable development.
The third approach to make sure tourists behave responsibly is to have them pay for the environmental pollution and wastage of resources they caused. As it was discussed above, tourism causes depletion of natural resources such as water, causing acute shortages, and leads to pollution, mainly due to reckless disposal of wastes by tourists.
According to Mathew and Sreejesh (2017), to promote responsible tourist behavior, the loss incurred due to this misconduct should be billed alongside hotel and tour expenses. The government and local communities will be excused from paying for the damage they did not cause and, thus, promote sustainability. With the introduction of these measures, all travelers will be encouraged to behave more responsibly to avoid unnecessary and preventable expenses.
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