Climate change has been going on for several decades and is caused by a gradual increase in the temperature of the earth’s atmosphere. Scientists predict terrible catastrophes if this temperature rises by 2°C in the next 50 years, after the current increase of 1°C over the past 100 years (Sultan et al. 2). Reasons for rising temperatures include household emissions and industrial burning of oil. The main problem of climate change is that the earth’s ecosystem is a fragile and interconnected mechanism, and the destruction of some elements invariably entails consequences for other parts of the system. In addition to weather shocks, climate change also has direct consequences for the agricultural industry due to the upcoming predicted droughts. This paper aims to discuss how climate change affects crop production in Latin American, Central American, and Eastern African regions.
Potential for Variability in Climate Change
The mentioned regions include countries active in agriculture such as Mexico and Ethiopia. Most of the agrarian systems of the regions combine the nature of farming associated with the rainy and dry seasons and the level of precipitation, as well as the types of crops grown. In particular, wheat, millet, and corn, the main crops that are grown in the regions, will undergo changes in production volumes in the coming decades, which will affect the import opportunities in the countries of the region. Equally important, given that Africa, Latin America, and Central America are among the world’s leading producers, successful farming in these regions is critical to world grain prices and the ability to meet global food demand.
Therefore, scientists today pay utmost attention to the study of the consequences of climate change, as well as the processes and factors that accompany these changes in the cultivation of grains. Great attention is paid to the region of East Africa and, in particular, Ethiopia, as one of the key suppliers of grain. Recently, increased droughts have changed the potential of the region, as evidenced by a number of studies. Abera et al. made predictions for yields and future climate in the coming period, mid-21st century and late 21st century, by collecting research data and soil samples from maize-growing areas in Ethiopia (3). According to the study, “maize yields will decrease by 43% and 24% by the end of the century at Bako and Melkassa stations, while the simulated corn yield at Hawassa shows an increase of 51%” (Abera et al. 4). Negative changes will be caused by rising temperatures and variability in rainfalls, which will lead to lower yields.
Interestingly, scientists are also predicting an increase in rainfalls in the Hawassa region, where crop yields will increase. Therefore, despite the general danger of the consequences of climate change, it can be expected that in other regions there will be cases of such mutual compensation of crop yields. The scientists conclude that states with a variable topography and climate, such as Ethiopia, can probably be considered more adaptive since the agricultural systems of these regions will show varied responses to climate change. At the same time, the reality of the expected changes must be addressed by national and regional authorities today to avoid food crashes in the future.
Factors of Adaptation to Change
No less interesting, changes are expected in other crops, such as sorghum and millet. Sultan et al. acknowledged the anthropogenic influence on the climate, resulting in a 1°C increase in temperature in West Africa, compared to climate simulations reflecting hypothetical conditions without human intervention (2). This increase in temperature has caused critical changes with extreme heat and rain, which is consistent with the general global pattern of climate change. As a result, scientists observed, “a regional average of 10-20% yield reductions in millet and 5-15% in sorghum in two crop models” (Sultan et al. 2). This reported reduction in yields resulted in significant production losses estimated at “US$2.33-4.02 billion for millet and US$0.73-2.17 billion for sorghum” (Sultan et al. 3). Scientists state the need to adapt crop production systems in the region to compensate for the expected losses.
Given the data presented above, the world’s main focus in studying the impact of climate change on crop production is related to estimating changes in future production volumes and actual climate changes, such as temperature patterns and rainfall. According to the data, adaptation patterns may include moving agricultural lands to more suitable regions (Abera et al. 5). Equally important, adaptation schemes can be based on the latest scientific developments.
Regulating the Soil Water Dynamics
Such developments are created through observation of existing rural areas, including the collection of soil samples. Rettie et al. found remarkable drought tolerance in some agricultural lands (1). Scientists note that most of Ethiopia’s agricultural land is natural and does not use artificial sources of irrigation. According to the latest analysis of yields, precipitation was not the main factor of sensitivity to climate change (Rettie et al. 8). Elevated temperatures and changes in nitrogen fertilization also contributed significantly. Changes in carbon dioxide levels and nitrogen fertilizer volumes showed the largest responses for wheat and less for corn. At the same time, “the response to changes in precipitation was weak, which we attribute to the high water-holding capacity of the soils due to the high content of organic carbon in the studied areas” (Rettie et al. 2). In other words, scientists have discovered the potential of Ethiopia’s soils, which, in theory, can be recreated to solve the problem of moisture retention during dry seasons.
The scientists stressed that the water-holding capacity of soils is a unique property. They noted that this property “may provide sufficient buffering capacity for long periods of time with little rainfall” (Rettie et al. 9). In general, climate change is stressing the importance of growing cereals, and wheat is expected to be the most difficult to grow while maize’s potential remains unchanged. Rettie et al. predict a 36-40% decline in wheat yields by 2050, due to differences in growth and cultivation patterns (9). This conclusion may imply that ways to adapt to climate change may include changing the way crops are grown, such as wheat, or genetic changes to alter growth processes. Equally important, in the future, scientists may be able to regulate soil water dynamics in parallel with other models, including growth and cultivation models.
Thus, the impact of climate change on crop production in Latin American, Central American, and Eastern African regions was discussed. Global climate change will lead to more dramatic drought and rainy cycles around the world, including in regions where the majority of crops are grown today. Wheat is seen as the most vulnerable crop, while corn is more resilient to change. The adaptability of agriculture can be ensured through the development of technologies for regulating the dynamics of soil water. Just as importantly, scientists can modify crop growth and cultivation patterns to resist change.
Works Cited
Abera, Kidist, et al. “Simulating the Impact of Climate Change on Maize Production in Ethiopia, East Africa.” Environmental Systems Research, vol. 7, no. 1, 2018, pp. 1-12.
Rettie, Fasil Mequanint, et al. “Climate Change Impact on Wheat and Maize Growth in Ethiopia: A Multi-Model Uncertainty Analysis.” PloS One, vol. 17, no. 1, 2022, p. 1-10.
Sultan, Benjamin, Dimitri Defrance, and Toshichika Iizumi. “Evidence of Crop Production Losses in West Africa due to Historical Global Warming in Two Crop Models.” Scientific Reports, vol. 9, no. 1, 2019, pp. 1-15.