Every commander is in a position to make decisions regarding the course of military operations. However, due to the scope and complexity of military operations, the commander relies on their staff to assist them in the decision-making process by providing relevant information about current operations and their possible outcomes. Staff officers are responsible for broadening the understanding of current operations by developing situational awareness and applying critical and creative thinking to forecast the outcome of current operations and outline the possible course of action.
The military decision-making process is an established process that relies on the integration of the commander, staff, and subordinate headquarters activities to accomplish the mission. The main function of military staff is to produce situational awareness or assist the commander in building their situational understanding by providing relevant information and recommendations regarding military operations (Commander and Staff Officer Guide, 2011, p. 13). As such, the two types of information are produced by the staff: situational awareness information and execution information (Staff Organization and Operations, 1997, p. 13).
In order to achieve situational awareness, staff continuously collects, processes, and presents data from all sources which impact military activities and affect their potential outcome. The concept of gathering the data about the enemy forces and environment of the region of the operation is known as the Intelligence Preparation of the Battlefield (IBP). IBP data is used to comprise a common operational picture, and includes, but is not limited to, the following:
- the position and status of friendly and enemy forces, including readiness, vulnerabilities, weapon capabilities, etc.;
- the status of necessary infrastructure components and systems including means of communications and transportation;
- environmental states impacts, including weather and climate, geography and terrain, etc.;
- intent and objectives of all participants of military conflict;
This data is gathered through an information network, which includes surveillance and intelligence, or is based on assumptions if data is inconclusive. All the available sources of information should be continuously monitored to create accurate situational awareness. By analyzing this data, disseminating it, and transforming it into knowledge, staff officers gain sufficient situational understanding which supports the commander’s decision making.
At the same time, situational understanding allows staff officers to anticipate the outcome of current operations and produce execution information, such as estimates and recommendations (Staff Organization and Operations, 1997, p. 13). For instance, information about the environment the friendly forces will operate in creates situational understanding since the knowledge of the effects of the environment will help friendly forces gain competitive advantage. Staff officers can anticipate the outcome of operations by disseminating data, evaluating the status and performance of military forces, and applying critical and creative thinking to determine variances in performance and environmental factors that are likely to influence changes in friendly, enemy, or environmental situations.
In order to anticipate the outcome of operations, staff officers can perform a course of action (COA) analysis, or war game, to visualize the flow of battle and anticipate battlefield events (Operational Law Handbook, 2015, p. 467). The focus of COA analysis is on the status and position of friendly forces, their strengths, and weaknesses, weapons and technology available to the enemy forces, possible COAs, and environmental features of the operations area (Staff Organization and Operations, 1997, p. 72).
Wargaming allows the participants to gain valuable insight into unforeseen events or problems. During the step-by-step COA analysis, the strengths and weaknesses of commander-selected COA become evident and can be used to estimate the outcome of the battle. Battlefield visualization, or the visualization of the operations leading to the desired end state, can also help staff officers to get an understanding of the situation and apply relevant information to make assumptions. During the battle visualization, enemy reactions and contractions can be projected, and the results of enemy actions estimated.
As such, COA and battle visualization cover every aspect of the operations and highlight every move strengths and weaknesses, which can be used to predict the outcome of the operations. For example, battle visualization can make legal issues evident, which may prompt a significant change in the relation between forces and require additional follow-up missions. By considering all the enemy forces in play and outlining a detailed plan to combat these forces, the likely outcome of the mission can be anticipated.
In addition, COA and battle visualization can help highlight relevant information requirements (Staff Organization and Operations, 1997, p. 73). The relevant information is all the information about the position and status of friendly and enemy forces, infrastructure, and the environment, which can be used to develop situational awareness. As it was already mentioned, such information is crucial for anticipating results and developing follow-up operations. For example, the information about the geography and weather conditions can be vital to the success of military operations.
The number of personnel losses after the mission is complete must be taken into account when planning a follow-up operation. The availability of technology and other assets, as well as resource shortfalls, are likely to affect the outcome of the operations greatly. The staff is responsible for disseminating a vast amount of information to identify critical facts and use this information to create assumptions and estimates. Assumptions and estimates should be updated as new information about the course of the battle make itself available. Depending on the likely outcome, staff officer can anticipate the nature of follow-up missions and develop mission concepts.
Critical and creative thinking is required to anticipate the result of the operations. “Creative thinking and critical reasoning are skills that aid the staff officer in developing and analyzing, respectively, courses of action” (Staff Organization and Operations, 1997, p. 73). According to the inputs available, staff officers are responsible for developing a concept of operations for follow-up missions. Such a concept is a comprehensive plan which describes the exact way the commander is to achieve follow-up mission objectives and is based upon the anticipated outcome of the original operations (Operational Law Handbook, 2015, p. 466). The concept of follow-up operations includes the COA statement and supporting sketch for the selected COAs (Operational Law Handbook, 2015, p. 466). Such work requires not only tactical judgment and experience but creative thinking and critical reasoning skills.
All the staff functions, except for the function of producing situational awareness about the area of operations, friendly and military forces and their assets might be considered secondary. The main function of staff officers is to assist the commander in the decision-making process throughout the current and follow-up operations. Staff officers can anticipate the outcome of operations by using the available data to transform it into knowledge and applying critical and creative thinking to determine factors that are likely to influence changes in friendly, enemy, or environmental situations.
References
Commander and Staff Officer Guide. (2011)
Operational Law Handbook. (2015). Web.
Staff Organization and Operations. (1997).