Introduction
This document assesses the threat of a terror attack occurring at the Islamic Society of Southwest Florida (ISSWF). This location is selected for review in the present study because it is a “soft target” for terrorist groups based on its easy accessibility to the public and high human traffic (ICSF, 2023). The present probe explores the history of terror events at Cape Coral, Florida, to identify issues of consideration when developing a robust risk assessment plan to prevent a terror attack at the ISSWF. Vulnerabilities associated with this asset and the consequences of an attack are equally discussed in this document. The importance of improving situational awareness, as part of the risk management plan, is canvassed in the same probe.
Description of Asset and Significance to Community
Located near Page Field and Park in South Florida, the ISSWF is a significant religious center for Muslims living in the Cape Coral Community of South Florida. The religious center is located on Broadway Avenue in Fort Myers, Florida. This venue could be a prime terrorist target because hundreds of worshipers access the facility daily for prayers (ICSF, 2023).
At the same time, the center is home to an Islamic religious institution that is frequented by approximately three hundred students daily. Based on these numbers, the ISSWF is one of the most significant religious and cultural centers for Muslims living in Cape Coral, Florida. This profile makes it a prime target for people who harbor anti-Islamic sentiments.
In terms of security analysis, the ISSWF is an unprotected religious center. The site does not have its own security arrangement. Local and state authorities provide this service. The lack of a private security system emanates from the fact that the venue is a religious center and thus free from militarized activities (ICSF, 2023). Consequently, the internal and external environments of the ISSWF are characterized by peace and tranquility – consistent with the expectations of a vibrant center of worship in the community.
The ISSWF welcomes most visitors to its unsecured center of religious worship. However, the lack of a robust security plan makes it easier for terrorists to access the facility (Farag, 2020). Consequently, the venue is a high-risk terrorist target for people harboring anti-Islam sentiments in the community. Again, the center represents the business and religious interests of Muslim members of Cape Coral. Therefore, protecting it has special significance to residents because it is a symbol of religious diversity in the Cape Coral Community. The threat of a terror attack at the facility could disrupt this progress.
History of Related Terror Events
The Cape Coral Community has a scattered history of terror attacks. The most recent is the Chabad Jewish Center attack that occurred in March 2023, where a lone gunman attempted a break-in to assault worshipers. The attack is one of the latest to mirror similar patterns of religious profiling, as the forecasted terror attack at the ISSWF. 51-year-old Maron Raymond organized the Chabad Jewish Center attack due to his anti-Semitic values (WGCU, 2023).
Authorities agreed with the prognosis of the attack and profiled it as a hate crime against the Jewish community (WGCU, 2023). The significance of the attack to the security of the wider Coral Florida community was evident because it had the potential to stoke anti-Semitic feelings among the population and hatred towards minorities and select groups of people (Farag, 2020). This event is noteworthy in relation to this study because it shares the same characteristics as the potential terrorist attack at the ISSWF discussed in this paper.
In another terror-related incident, a resident of Cape Coral, Florida, threatened to injure members of the public through a mass shooting event. Authorities believe that the 55-year-old individual, known as Ira Dennis Crosser, threatened residents through a Short Message Service (SMS) that he was going to conduct a mass shooting exercise at an unknown public facility in the community. His threats were inspired by a similar mass shooting event at a July 4th incident in Chicago, Illinois (WGCU, 2022). Therefore, authorities were concerned that a similar attack could be organized and witnessed in Cape Coral.
Broadly, based on the characteristics of the above-mentioned threats and the Chabad Jewish Center attack described earlier, the frequency of terrorist attacks occurring at Cape Coral Community appears to be random and includes amateur groups of people. Indeed, the possibility that someone would gain access to a building filled with people and shoot indiscriminately is high. Overall, based on the high incidence of mass shootings at shopping malls, schools, and other recreational areas in Florida, the possibility of another terror event happening at the Cape Coral Community is high. Therefore, this study highlights the real potential of a terror target at the ISSWF.
Risk Assessment Framework
The threat assessment model could be used to assess the risk of a terror attack at the ISSWF. The model highlights three main pillars associated with assessing terrorist attacks. The first one (vulnerability) involves a review of an individual’s background, goals, and susceptibility to extremist ideologies (Hamilton, 2018).
The second tenet of assessment (threat) involves the creation of a multidisciplinary and multiagency team that collects intelligence related to terror-related activities and uses it to develop a risk assessment plan for mitigation (Hamilton, 2018). The last pillar (consequences) of assessment involves the process of merging information systems from the intelligence community and academia to create a holistic counter-terrorism network of security operations. Figure 1 presents an outline of the model.
The above-mentioned model has been used to assess lone terror threats, such as stabbing, shootings, and bombings. Thus, the model of assessment applies to the current analysis based on the high risk that a lone terrorist could attack people congregated in one location. Consequently, in assessing the risk of terror threats at the ISSWF, the aforementioned model can be used to evaluate three levels of risk analysis, as shown in the table below.
Table 1. Risk analysis
Asset Vulnerabilities
The vulnerability of the ISSWF to terror threats is predicated on several key factors. The first one is the openness to the public, as the religious complex is not secured. Therefore, it may be challenging to prevent suspects from physically accessing the location. The high population density at the site defines the second level of vulnerability. It means that there may be widespread human casualties in the case of an attack. In terms of human resource staffing requirements, the ISSWF has a dozen workers at the facility working as regular staff.
Hundreds more are recruited daily to assist in charitable and community-based activities (ICSF, 2023). These two levels of workers could play a crucial role in the security system if they are well-trained in threat detection. Indeed, they could work with police or law enforcement officers in several areas of security management, including surveillance, information services, and security checks (Farag, 2020). Doing so would help them to respond to terror threats effectively.
Consequences of Attack
An attack at the ISSWF would have significant social, political, and economic ramifications for residents of the Cape Coral community. As highlighted in this assessment, this location holds significant cultural and religious importance for Muslims in the community. Therefore, an attack on the site would create panic and uncertainty about the welfare and safety of its members.
Particularly, it could dent the image of law enforcement officers and their associated agencies regarding their capability to prevent attacks on residents (Elbahy, 2019). Indeed, citizens need to feel assured that their safety is guaranteed for them to operate optimally. The absence of this security through terror-related threats and risks would likely jeopardize such stability.
Risk Mitigation Plan
The threat of a terrorist attack at the ISSWF could be evaluated using a three-pronged framework. It comprises three phases: Phase 1 – threat identification, Phase 2 – detailed risk assessment, and Phase 3 – development of a risk management plan. Table 2 shows how the risk mitigation plan would be implemented.
Table 2. Risk mitigation plan.
Improving Situational Awareness
Situational awareness can be improved by recognizing the subconscious beliefs that influence people’s actions. In assessing the situational risk of terror attacks at the ISSWF, risks can be evaluated by considering their probability of occurrence and severity, as illustrated by the formula below.
[Situational awareness outcome = Probability of risk X Severity of value]
Based on the above-mentioned formula, situational awareness of a terror attack at the ISSWF may be predicated on understanding the probability of the event occurring and its severity (Xenon Group, 2021). High-value outcomes mean that associated risks should be prioritized. Other models of risk assessment include the vulnerability index, which is used in determining risk events.
Establishing a “Sense of Space”
Based on the above-mentioned risk mitigation plan, establishing a “sense of space” at the ISSWF requires a broad-based approach to disaster risk mitigation and management. This disaster planning strategy may be implemented by incorporating situational awareness into the overall religious experience at the venue. This action means that situational awareness should become part of the onboarding process and a critical section of the training exercise of its workers, including volunteers working at the site. The aim of doing so is to inculcate a culture of safety in the vicinity. In this process, all stakeholders should be given the opportunity to share their ideas and perspectives.
The plan should pave the way for establishing a “sense of space” at the facility. The process requires participants to communicate all perceptions of risk (Elbahy, 2019). The aim of implementing this step in the risk management plan is to marshal support for its implementation. This action may involve training workers on how to identify suspicious individuals at the ISSWF for additional screening. Additional measures to be taken in establishing the “sense of space” at the complex may include training the employees to “neutralize” attackers.
Government Agencies Involved
The Department of Homeland Security (DHS) should be involved in the assessment of terror risks at the Islamic Society of Southwest Florida. This government agency is most suited to manage this problem because it was created to address gaps in the government response to terror attacks after the 9/11 attacks (Farag, 2020). Thus, the DHS should be involved in the risk analysis and mitigation plan for the ISSWF. This government agency has resources to help it achieve this goal, including advanced training capabilities for threat detection and the use of federal grant funding to undertake core surveillance tasks (Farag, 2020). Therefore, its capabilities are useful in detecting and preventing terror attacks.
The Federal Emergency Management Agency should similarly be involved in developing the ISSWF’s terrorism management plan. Its core task is to coordinate disaster response strategies across different government divisions. This organization possesses capabilities that could be beneficial in preventing terrorist attacks, including intelligence and information sharing, threat detection, and disaster resilience assessment (Elbahy, 2019). Therefore, at the federal level, this institution should be involved in developing mitigation plans to manage potential terror threats at the religious complex.
Local and state agencies should also be included in these plans. They must manage crowds and enforce regulations or policies developed by the aforementioned state agencies (Farag, 2020). Private sector organizations may offer assistance to these state agencies by providing technical support during investigations. Thus, their involvement in risk analysis and mitigation planning may be contextualized by promoting the quality of investigative cases (Elbahy, 2019). For example, mobile service providers and car rental companies may offer valuable information about assailants, thereby enabling law enforcement officers to bring justice to victims. Therefore, the disaster relief and management response plan should include a coordinated plan that involves major players in security analysis.
Conclusion
This assessment report has analyzed the risk of a terror attack for the Islamic Society of Southwest Florida. The evidence gathered has shown that this location is a “soft target” and vulnerable to different types of terror attacks, including bombings, mass shootings, and stabbings. The consequences could be severe due to the high human traffic associated with the location.
To mitigate these risks, situational awareness should be incorporated into the site’s security management plan as part of the onboarding process. A critical part of the initiative should include training local personnel, including employees and volunteers, to detect and report suspicious activities. Overall, a collaborative and engaging approach to risk management and analysis is required to develop a robust plan for preventing terror attacks at the ISSWF.
References
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