Introduction
The conflict between the United States and China over Middle Eastern influence has reached a boiling point, and it does not favor American democracy. China’s accomplishment in repairing relations between Saudi Arabia and Iran is highlighted, as is the efficiency of Xi Jinping’s (The President of China) foreign policy in strengthening relationships between China, Iran, and Russia. However, while China’s influence in the Middle East is expanding, it is still limited.
In August, China’s top ambassador even indicated that Beijing is driving a “wave of reconciliation” in the Middle East as governments prioritize the growth of their societies and cooperation with the Asian economic behemoth. However, the confrontation may now spread as pro-Iranian proxies escalate attacks against US and Israeli interests, while the US-designed process of repairing Arab relations with Israel is in deep freeze. In all this, China is more interested in rhetorical posturing than genuine diplomatic attempts. This memorandum will examine the rising conflict between China and the United States in the Middle East.
Defense of the Middle East
Analyzing Biden’s statements and actions, one might infer that the US is carrying out its declared obligations in the Middle East. Biden informed the Gulf Cooperation Council in Jeddah, Saudi Arabia, that his country will continue to be an engaged player in the Middle East. Biden stated that the US wants to help bolster international maritime defenses in the Middle East, which was interpreted as a clear message to Iran. The president said that the US will not allow foreign or regional nations to threaten Middle Eastern freedom of navigation.
The US President also stated unequivocally that Iran would not be allowed to get nuclear weapons. The meeting was the conclusion of months of diplomatic work by the Biden administration to improve US-Saudi ties and marked a watershed moment for Biden. In a defensive move, US President Joe Biden warned Iran’s supreme leader that the US would strike if Iran or its allies attacked US soldiers stationed in the Middle East. Similar instances of the US sticking up for the Middle East abound, lending credence to the idea.
Competing for Influence
Today’s China has been the world leader for the last thirty years in terms of industrial and financial potential growth rates; the owner of the world’s second-largest economy – has transformed itself into the world’s largest exporter, lender, consumer of raw materials, the state with the most gold reserves, the future world reserve currency, and the world’s largest population and army. Global dynamics, in which China plays an increasingly important role, substantially influence the emergence of a new world order. At the same time, China’s ties with the world’s top actors, particularly the United States, are critical to the continued growth of the international order.
Today, the relationship between China and the United States is at the forefront of global affairs. Since their restoration, they have been varied – partners, competitors, and, in recent years, prospective rivals. China’s expanding global influence and ambitions force the US to rethink bilateral relations strategically. The fact that China’s economic and military clout is expanding will heighten tensions in US-China ties in the coming years.
While Washington hopes to reduce its trade and balance of payments deficits by selling more debt obligations to Beijing and allowing the yuan to appreciate, China is increasingly questioning the wisdom of economic and financial interdependence with the US, the safety of its foreign exchange reserves held in US assets, and the role of the US dollar in the world. At the same time, a paradox arises in which China, by purchasing US debt obligations, pays for the modernization of the US armed forces and its encirclement by US military bases and fleets.
Further growth of partnership relations between the United States and China may result in more economic and investment cooperation, a free trade zone, and cooperative measures in response to common global dangers and problems. At the same time, as a rival, China could become the United States’ new Soviet Union, resulting in a new Cold War, the resetting of US debt obligations, demands to restructure the existing international system in China’s favor, and contributing to the growing Sino-American struggle for geopolitical dominance in the new world order.
However, evaluating the US’s activities and current impact in the Middle East, one might infer that the US is losing influence. America’s desperate focus on China distorts reality, which is as follows: for the past thirty years, all Middle Eastern countries, including Egypt, Iran, Iraq, Israel, and the six members of the Gulf Cooperation Council (GCC), have prioritized active economic and military cooperation with Asia, not just with China, but also with India, Indonesia, Japan, Korea, Malaysia, and Singapore.
Saudi Arabia’s commerce with China, the region’s largest economy, is now three times higher than its trade with the United States and two times greater than its trade with Europe. China now accounts for one-fifth of the Gulf Arab states’ foreign economic contact. However, commerce between the GCC and India has developed substantially recently. Commercial engagement between the area and ASEAN is also increasing but at a slower pace.
Emerging Asia, led by China, displaces Western economic influence in the Middle East. American self-centeredness explains what is happening, implying that this was China’s intention. No government in the area expects China to replace the United States as a security guarantee. China avoids alliances because it fears being embroiled in conflicts with no direct interests (Leverett & Bingbing, 2017).
In the guise of this competition, the US has made considerable efforts to limit China’s trade and investment in other nations, imposing sanctions, quotas, and tariffs that have affected the whole world, including West Asia. However, such impediments cannot compete with trade agreements that enable and expand commerce. They merely create a void that necessitates increased economic connection among countries, including China, as opposed to the US. Recent events in the Middle East have demonstrated that this is a definite way to undermine US influence.
The only West Asian country that has succumbed to US pressure and curtailed military cooperation with China is Israel, which cannot afford to lose US support and qualitative military dominance. Since the US-China technology competition, fewer Chinese investors have invested in Israeli enterprises (Fulton, 2019). Instead, Israel looked to India because Hindutva principles align with its own religious nationalism and Islamophobia. India is presently Israel’s primary military partner among emerging Asian countries and its primary international arms market.
U.S. Authorship Forecast
Predicting future events a decade in advance, one might conclude that the more critical non-East Asian theaters occupy Washington’s attention, the more time and space China has to impose its strategic supremacy in the Indo-Pacific. No one can look at the United States handing over massive amounts of artillery ammunition, smart bombs, missiles, and other American armaments to Ukraine and Israel and not notice that American stocks are depleting.
For Xi, who referred to Taiwan’s takeover of the People’s Republic as a “historic mission,” the longer these hostilities last, the better. The United States still has the resources to give military and other help to Israel. Prospects for further help will become evident after a new House speaker is nominated to replace Kevin McCarthy, dismissed on October 3. Blinken, in turn, may attempt to persuade Netanyahu and his close circle to avoid further escalation.
However, the troubling trends Americans are witnessing in the Middle East are not the product of China’s predatory tactics but of the US government’s rejection or inability to support the economic, political, and military demands of former client countries. Sanctions against China and refusals to sell arms or transfer technology will not halt, let alone reverse, these advances. Rising Asia, not only China, is generating concern in the region (Young, 2019). In order to solve this, the government needs to modify its rules and practices for dealing with both its eastern and southern neighbors as well as West Asian nations. Therefore, the United States’ credibility in the Middle East will be badly damaged if the current trend continues and the administration does not change its approach.
Proposing a More Effective Strategy
This blueprint does not give the best foundation for active, principled US leadership in the area today. Since present influence tactics are unsuccessful, the United States must shift its approach. First, the government should explore starting cooperative initiatives to address human security concerns and place diplomacy at the forefront of attempts to end crises in Syria, Yemen, and Libya. Containment and engagement with Iran through diplomacy, backed by a balanced regional security policy, can potentially be a successful step toward expanded influence.
To achieve long-term gains, America’s regional security allies should be included in renewed negotiations with Iran. Furthermore, the government should consider pursuing a more balanced regional security policy emphasizing emerging threats. Furthermore, as previously noted, the government should alter its engagement policies and practices not just with West Asian governments but also with its neighbors to the east and south.
Conclusion
As a result, China’s efforts to gain a real political and strategic influence in the Middle East through primarily economic means may be fruitful. However, while Beijing has considerable economic power, its capacity to influence key political events elsewhere is much more limited. In many respects, Beijing is the “easy, great state” in the Middle East and elsewhere, mainly outside China’s Asia-Pacific area. Beijing is also risk-averse because [Chinese Communist Party] officials fear failure and global excess. As a result of China’s refusal to assign any responsibility for security in the region based on military might, the breadth of China’s strategic influence is not limited.
References
Fulton, J. (2019). China’s changing role in the Middle East. The Atlantic Council.
Leverett, F., & Bingbing, W. (2017). The New Silk Road and China’s evolving grand strategy. The China Journal, 77(1), 110-132. Web.
Young, K. E. (2019). The Gulf’s eastward turn: The logic of Gulf-China economic ties. Journal of Arabian Studies, 9(2), 236-252. Web.