The Cold War between the United States and the Soviet Union, the outgrowths of which are still reflected today, ended in 1991. However, the issue of a new war and protests that involve competition between the United States and China is on the agenda again. For the first 25 years of their autonomy, the Central Asian states were geopolitically oriented toward the West. The U.S. helped the five countries of the region strengthen their autonomy, sovereignty, and territorial integrity. It also secured the withdrawal of nuclear weapons and promoted democracy and human rights. Over the years, tremendous work has been done, including by Uzbekistan, whose former president is still considered one of the world’s most authoritarian rulers.
Today, however, Central Asia is moving in a different direction, and these changes may make it more challenging for countries to become democracies with market economies and integration. A significant geopolitical reorientation and an unstable situation create the preconditions for the increased rivalry for influence in the region. The U.S. is interested in ensuring that the region does not become a haven for radical Islamic militants. Since 2000, several terrorist groups have been active in Afghanistan and Pakistan and pose a severe threat. Furthermore, the concept of mass weapons, which is once again on the list, could become another challenge to the safety of the entire world society.
All these advancements portend a weakening of American and Western power in Central Asia, which is increasingly drawn into China’s political and economic orbit, seeking refuge under the Russian security umbrella. Excessive and unrealizable promises and setting ambitious but unrealistic goals will only lead to mutual irritation and frustration in the region’s five countries. On the contrary, all sides would benefit from a policy based on a realistic assessment of the situation and mutual interests. Diplomacy, an effective weapon against security challenges, should be the main tool to prevent a new cold war.