Introduction
A theme of AI development takes a notable place in science fiction books, movies, and video games, but it is not limited by them. Skynet from the Terminator franchise became self-aware and almost succeeded in the destruction of humanity. In Mass Effect 2, EDI successfully operates a state-of-the-art space ship at full efficiency even after the total loss of the human crew. However, friendly or not, AI can significantly affect the real-life future of humanity on multiple levels, especially in social and economic spheres.
Moreover, it is already happening in our time, and the most prominent business owners already show their concerns about AI making humans redundant. Elon Musk argued that “Twenty years is a short period of time to have something like 12-15 percent of the workforce be unemployed” (qtd. in McGaughey 1). The founder of eBay, Pierre Omidyar, states, “automation is replacing traditional jobs” and that “may make employment far less stable and reliable for supporting a livelihood” (qtd. in McGaughey 2). A Universal Base Income (UBI) is often proposed as a solution to this issue, but it has multiple severe drawbacks and difficulties in implementation. The idea might seem lucrative for the unemployed, however, the introduction of UBI might come at a heavy price of extra taxation, cuts of welfare programs, and possible social tensions.
Understanding AI Development
A terrifying, highly-capable, and self-aware AI still remains a part of science fiction. Nevertheless, it is crucial to understand that even the initial steps of AI development are already impacting human civilization. The vast majority of contemporary AI technologies belong to the “narrow” or “specialized” category, which means they are only suitable for particular, usually mundane tasks. An AI does not have to think; it can be inferior to humans in any other area and still make them redundant since “it only needs to do the specific things you are paid to do” (Ford 230). Therefore, concerns about human positions in the labor market seem to be justified.
The AI development can theoretically continue up to a point where it comes out of human hands and transforms into an AI-driven cycle of self-improvement, which will produce an infinitely superior alien intellect. This assumption may sound unrealistic, even fictional, but according to Stephen Hawking and his co-authors, dismissing that possibility can turn out into “the worst mistake of our history” (qtd. in Ford 229). Governments and corporations develop AI technologies to gain a competitive advantage, and a strive for improvement can lead to results worse than growing unemployment rates.
Ways to Tackle Unemployment Caused by Automation
The problem of automation-caused unemployment and social disturbances is surprisingly old. As one US president said: “To even stand still we have to move very fast” since “too many machines are throwing people out” (qtd. Ford 249). This statement was made by John F. Kennedy almost 60 years ago. The examples of unemployment supposedly driven by technological advancement can be found even earlier. For instance, the Luddites and “Tolpuddle martyrs” from England protested against wage cuts and the replacement of human workers with machines in the 18th and 19th centuries (McGaughey 21). The Luddites resisted by breaking the machines, while the workers from Tolpuddle founded a prototype union. Nowadays, the experts suggest several main ways to tackle the unemployment caused by automation.
Firstly, modern employees are encouraged to study harder and get a better education to stay competitive. Ford (252) compared this situation with a pyramid that constantly produces technically overqualified employees. As a result, the market is full of trained staff with limited working opportunities for them. Secondly, business owners and scholars advocate for the introduction of UBI, which would serve as a cushion in case of job loss. This mechanism, while sounding humane and benevolent, requires detailed studying.
Universal Base Income — How Would It Work
In general, the experts and scholars provide several roadmaps of how UBI would be implemented and what groups of the population would receive it. The word “universal” suggests that every citizen would receive that income; however, it is mostly not the case. Kearney and Mogstad (5) studied several UBI proposals in the USA, and only one out of six included all US population. The other five proposals had specific eligibility criteria, the most common was age restriction to 18+ or 21+ citizens.
The reason behind restrictions and eligibility criteria can be found in a staggering amount of funds, which would be necessary for the mass introduction of UBI. This statement is true both for the USA and European countries. In the American case, an annual UBI of $10 000 would cost $2,5 trillion per year or more than half of the US budget (Kearney and Mogstad 3). Ford (273) basically suggests implementing a progressive scale of taxation to fund the basic income program. Pulkka (2) admits that the European workforce will have a hard time adjusting to changes in skills. Nevertheless, he elaborates a very conservative approach to the introduction of UBI since a monthly payment of €1000 would require raising the Finnish national tax rate to 60%. Unsurprisingly, the citizens of European countries were much more favorable to fair redistribution of wealth than to basic income (Dermot and Weisstanner 5). Automation is already influencing the labor market, but with such unclear roadmaps, the introduction of UBI looks challenging, to say the least.
Universal Base Income —The Arguments Against
The idea of UBI raised many concerns among the experts, who provided several kinds of arguments against it. They claim that UBI will be unable to ease social tensions caused by unemployment and ensure minimum living standards for vulnerable social groups. Another concern is possible funding sources of UBI since its introduction will come with a heavy taxation burden. Even an increase in tax rates or implementation of new taxes might be insufficient to fund the UBI program. Therefore, the arguments against UBI can be divided into ethical and economic categories.
The first category comes from the existing ethical approach to paid work. According to Sage and Diamond (29), due to the value and importance of work in the eyes of society, the unemployed recipients of UBI will still experience social isolation and low wellbeing. Furthermore, UBI will only underline a social division between highly qualified employees and unemployed UBI recipients. The only feasible way to address it would be finding a job (and probably losing a basic income) or enjoying a life of a non-contributing slacker.
Economic issues with UBI introduction are not solely related to taxation since it could probably come at the price of other social programs or means of redistribution. In the US case, funding a basic UBI would require radically increase taxes and sacrifice all other social programs (Kearney and Mogstad 15). In that sense, the idea of basic income could even seem unfair, as people who decided to drop out from the workforce might receive support instead of elderly people and children. A situation like that serves as an example of another matter that should be considered if UBI will ever be seriously discussed on a political level.
Conclusion
Automation is swiftly coming into human life, and humanity can witness how it reshapes society’s social and economic spheres. The consequences of further AI development are truly unpredictable, fascinating, or even terrifying. Even the “narrow”, specialized AI in the form of robots is already making certain professions redundant. Universal Basic Income (UBI), one of the proposed means of helping the unemployed, seems somewhat controversial. While it looks tempting to receive a safety cushion from the state, the challenges of basic income’s introduction force to consider other alternatives to help the unemployed. In current circumstances, the introduction of the UBI looks hardly feasible or practical both from financial and social points of view.
Works Cited
Dermont, Clau, and David Weisstanner. “Automation and the Future of the Welfare State: Basic Income as a Response to Technological Change?.” Political Research Exchange vol. 2, no. 1, 2020, pp. 1–12.
Ford, Martin. Rise of the Robots: Technology and the Threat of a Jobless Future. Basic Books, 2015.
Kearney, Melissa S., and Magne Mogstad. “Universal Basic Income (UBI) as a Policy Response to Current Challenges.” Report, Aspen Institute, 2019, pp. 1–19.
McGaughey, Ewan. “Will Robots Automate Your Job Away? Full Employment, Basic Income, and Economic Democracy.” Centre for Business Research, University of Cambridge, Working Paper 496, 2018, pp. 1–34.
Pulkka, Ville-Veikko. “A Free Lunch with Robots – Can a Basic Income Stabilise the Digital Economy?.” Transfer: European Review of Labour and Research vol. 23, no. 3, 2017, pp. 295–311.
Sage, Daniel, and Patrick Diamond. “Europe’s New Social Reality: The Case Against Universal Basic Income.” Foundation for European Progressive Studies, 2017, pp. 1–39.