## Background and context of the situation

The events of the company and then probability of the portfolios churning profits in the foreseeable future is largely dependent on the scenario for that period and the prevailing business environment. In analyzing the different portfolios, I have simplified their names in to alphabetical letters for simplicity in working out the computations.

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The first fund/portfolio is herewith names K. These type of portfolio has been set aside for short term investors where the risk in most minimal and the probability of deviating from expected returns is also minimal. The second portfolio, is for investors not willing to take risks but relatively risky than in 2 but slightly safer. The percentage of risk is directly related to the rate of return on the investments. It therefore means that the quest is to determine linear equations that are going to give us the highest returns to investor money and at the same time attract the least risk. As shown in the spreadsheet the trend goes on in that the higher the risk the higher the rate of return.

In general it is correct to sat consumer spending for the households is dependent on many factors. However, the major determinant as previous events have shown is income taxes. The levels effected by the federal and state governments on individuals is expressed as a percentage of gross income. Households have shown that they allocate consumption as a function taxes and not income.

## Recommendations

The company should evaluate on finer details on the expectations of the best scenario. However facts should be emphasized upon in consumer spending for the households is dependent on many factors. However, the major determinant as previous events have shown is income taxes. The levels effected by the federal and state governments on individuals is expressed as a percentage of gross income.

Households have shown that they allocate consumption as a function taxes and not income.

I would recommend that the first and the second portfolios be scraped. The chances of them churning out returns in the face of the different scenarios should be emphasized. This is because for the first portfolio the chances of making returns in the different scenarios are very varied.

## Justification

Return in scenario 1 = Return on portfolio 1 in scenario 1 ×average Percentage of return.

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This will happen in all the scenarios with the final answer being given by the sum of all the scenarios.

The events of the company and then probability of the portfolios churning profits in the foreseeable future is largely dependent on the scenario for that period and the prevailing business environment. In analyzing the different portfolios, I have simplified their names into numerical numbers for simplicity in working out the computations.

The first fund/portfolio is herewith referred to as portfolio one. This type of portfolio has been set aside for short term investors where the risk in most minimal and the probability of deviating from expected returns is also minimal. The second portfolio , is for investors not willing to take risks but relatively risky than in portfolio 2 but slightly safer. The percentage of risk is directly related to the rate of return on the investments. It therefore means that the quest is to determine linear equations that are going to give us the best highest returns to investor money and at the same time attract the least risk.

## Overview of methodology

These values of the decision variables yield the optimal solution, in which the risk of the portfolio returns is minimized to a standard deviation of 16.95 percent. These decision variable values also meet all of the constraints of the problem: The sum of the percentages is 100 percent; the expected return from these percentages is 11.6 percent; and majority of portfolios have have a non negative value in the different scenarios.

## References

Portfolio management Institute. The standard for portfolio management, London: Portfolio management Institute, 2006.