Tense and conflictual relations between countries can have an impact on all parties involved. Thus, a precise analysis of the situation, the reasons for the involvement of countries in a potential military conflict, and the possible consequences are necessary. The central topic of the paper is the effect that a war between Taiwan and China might have on the economic activities of the United States. This paper will be based on an article by Hal Brands (2022) called “Economic Chaos of a Taiwan War Would Go Well Past Semiconductors.”
First of all, it is necessary to gain an understanding of the causes of the tensions between Taiwan and China. The basis of this conflict is that Taiwan has long been an independent state, which the Chinese government does not welcome. Hence, it is taking measures that are aimed at changing this situation. The U.S. involvement is that it is one of Taiwan’s arms suppliers. The article Brands (2022) notes that the United States should “There are plenty of reasons the U.S. should seek to deter China from attacking Taiwan” (para. 1). In economic terms, the main effect for the states would be economic chaos and multiple sanctions that could be imposed on both sides. It could also affect the decline of gross domestic product and destroy technological supply chains.
From a legal perspective, the conflict between China and Taiwan could split the legal institutions of the U.S. over differences in economic nuances. As Brands (2022) argues, in the example of the war between Russia and Ukraine, one can observe the distinctive views of legislators and policymakers on helping the Ukrainian government. On the one hand, opposition to an aggressor is the basis for financial assistance to a state that has suffered from a military invasion. However, on the other hand, the internal economic problems of the U.S. may be considered objective reasons to hold back the endless flow of money and weapons coming from the Western state. In the case of Taiwan, the situation can be similar. Focus on economic support can divide the government of the country and cause significant disagreement about the amount of financial support. Such an outcome is possible given the existing dissatisfaction on the part of individual American politicians with the involvement of the U.S. in the Russian-Ukrainian conflict.
The impact of a possible war on the U.S. economic market may manifest itself in weakened imports and, as a result, a decrease in trade potential. Brands (2022) emphasizes the uniqueness of Taiwan’s manufacturing base and draws attention to the fact that in the care of war, the American technology market will not be able to rely on the same output as before. As a result, supply chain restructuring and emergency contract signings may be inevitable outcomes of the war.
In conclusion, hostilities almost always have more disadvantages than advantages for conflicting sides. Thus, a possible outbreak of conflict between Taiwan and China may cause significant economic problems for the United States, including its internal and external markets. American trade and production ties with Taiwan are the reasons for avoiding the outbreak of confrontation. In addition, some of the economic consequences could be sanctions, a decline in the gross domestic product, economic chaos, and a split in the legal field due to disagreements about the level of financial support.
Reference
Brands, Hal. 2022. “Economic Chaos of a Taiwan War Would Go Well Past Semiconductors.” Bloomberg. Web.