One cannot tell what will happen in the next 25 years in international politics. Nevertheless, experts agree that the world will become less liberal. In fact, it is assumed that the United States will be unable to retain its power and maintain global order, as newly powerful states will start to promote their agendas.
Nonetheless, it is likely that the growing powers will try to maintain their integration and the general world order to gain more support. Notably, these countries are not reacting to the need to change the world order, but to the need to become greater. This article seeks to show that while the dynamics of international politics are likely to change through emerging powers, liberalist institutions, and the world order will still remain.
Traditionally, the position of the United States has been that of a world leader and one of the countries in the forefront calling for a liberal international order. The US used the post-war world climate to establish a world order in areas of institutional governance like the IMF and the United Nations.
However, the present rising stars are mostly large non-western countries that are still trying to develop, which also have different cultural, political and economic experiences. The upcoming countries have an anti-colonial and imperial world view. Thus, they tend to be grappling with developmental problems, meaning they cannot have a broader capitalistic world view like their superior counterparts.
Further, the effects of the economic recession have placed the United States at a questionable ground, with most countries questioning its capability to be the world economic leader. In fact, most of the developing countries are now praised for producing half the globe’s GDP, being the key reservoirs of the world’s financial resources, as well as the main markets for the world’s raw material and energy resources.
In effect, there is a change in principles and transitions that distort the ideal global order, as these countries continue to grow and become primary players in international politics. Notably, a cluster of international liberal ideas that are mostly spread by the United States is being questioned. Among these issues are free markets, the acceptability of the United States military, and democratization.
In the years to come, it is assumed that China will become the world’s superpower and the leader in global decision making. It is expected that China will use its growing power to push for agendas in world politics towards the illiberal direction. One aspect through which China is assumed to be exercising its power is through vocally declaring that it has handled the effect of the economic crisis better than the United States.
In fact, China has handled the economic storm better than its western counterparts. However, while the position of the United States in the global world is changing, the liberal international order is still well and alive. Thus, the struggle for power today is not about changing the international principles and world order, but to gain more authority and leadership priorities. In fact, these emerging powers are benefiting through operating inside the international order.
It is through this portal that countries like China, Brazil, Iran, Russia, and India can benefit by gaining both political and economic prosperity, which occur through their participation in the world trade organization and the G-20 summit. Thus, their economic and political success is greatly dependent on their involvement in the liberalist international political world that they have many interests in ensuring that the system succeeds.
Notably, the liberal international order is not just the coming together of several states that believe in democracy, but a society of mutual aid. It is a society that operates like an existing global club through which members are able to benefit by gaining trade opportunities, resolution of the dispute, collective action frameworks, gained security guarantee, and resources when they are in need. Thus, the rising states are eager to gain power in this platform.
Among the reasons that guide their pursuit of power is the need to enter into other countries to invest, trade, and share their knowledge. Among the major things that China hopes to do is to gain access to the liberal order to have its local currency, the Yuan, become an international currency. Resultantly, the country will be able to compete with the United States’ dollar on an equal platform.
The ability of China to compete with the US could also be a step towards stabilizing the exchange rate of the country and enabling the Chinese to gain the ability to participate in shaping global policies. Further, the need to remain in the global world order is an instrument through which China hopes to reassure the neighbouring countries as they slowly progress into power.
When China is strong, its neighbours will become less secure, especially when it starts becoming aggressive and showing showoff tendencies. Since changing tact to be aggressive will cause backlash towards Beijing, China will rise to power through being integrated into both regional and global institutions.
Overall, it is likely that international politics will remain stable over the years. Stability will remain due to the need to maintain the global order and liberalist institutions, given the benefits they offer to the member countries. However, there are going to be changed in who holds the power mantle. Presently, emerging countries like China are rising above the renowned superpowers like the United States.
Thus, it is likely that there is going to be a competition and conflict between these countries to maintain power and the struggle to gain it from the opponents. Therefore, the future of international politics lies with who holds power, as much as the system will be secure.