In the first quarter of the year, the U.S. economy experienced its worst contraction in a decade as restrictions were imposed in the country to slow the spread of coronavirus infection. The U.S. tried to cushion the economic blow with nearly $ 3 trillion (2.4 trillion) in new spending, including direct payments to many families (Horsley). The Federal Reserve has also taken a number of emergency measures, including cutting interest rates to near zero. However, these moves did not stop unemployment from rising to levels not seen since the Great Depression of the 1930s. To date, about 40 million Americans have lost their jobs; the Labor Department announced that the unemployment rate reached 20% in June 2020, up from 14.7% in May (Goulde). The U.S. has seen a historic decline in business activity and consumer confidence.
Millions of workers have been embroiled in government-backed job retention programs as parts of the economy, such as tourism and hospitality, have fallen into economic disruption due to business interruptions. Unlike the Great Depression, when Americans lost their jobs permanently and irrevocably, most of the new cases now are people on unpaid leave. They account for almost 80% of the increase in unemployment (Cajner). For some professions, demand has increased during the pandemic. First of all, it is true for short-term vacancies in pharmacies, hospitals, delivery, the Internet, and grocery stores. According to various estimates, the pandemic will create about 3 million of these jobs. According to LinkedIn, the top ten professions in demand in the United States today include nurses, salespeople and cashiers, sorters, and couriers (Anders). For example, Amazon, the largest online retailer in the United States, hired over 100,000 people in less than a month to meet the increased demand for shipping. In an environment where disinfection is required everywhere to fight the coronavirus, the number of vacancies for cleaners has increased by 75%. An acute shortage of workers is experienced in agriculture, where the share of labor migrants is high.
The pandemic’s adverse economic impact is being felt by hundreds of millions of workers worldwide, including migrant workers. The critical problem faced by labor migrants everywhere is the limitation of mobility and the closure of state borders. Since January 2020, millions of people around the world have found themselves in a difficult situation when making international travel, as more than 170 countries have introduced various restrictions on migration mobility. As stated in the UN-initiated COVID-19 Global Humanitarian Response Plan, the current pandemic has very quickly turned into a mobility crisis (United Nations). For labor migrants, this means the emergence of several serious problems. The main one is the loss of a job with the inability to return home. In this situation, labor migrants find themselves “hostages” with no means of subsistence and no opportunity to return to their homeland. It is evident that labor migrants will first be unemployed and, unlike citizens of countries where migrants work, they will not be able to claim social benefits, which can leave many of them without a livelihood and, therefore, without the opportunity to return to their homeland. It is necessary to support labor migrants by providing them with benefits for renewal of documents, increased mobility, and increased wages.
The landscape of work in the post-COVID-19 era will drastically transform. First of all, fundamental changes are coming in those areas that are subject to automation: drivers, couriers, shop assistants, and accountants. The printing industry is going through a crisis, losing out to the growing online market (electronic media and similar services), and the demand for specialists employed in this area will decrease. The automation will also affect librarians and mail carriers. Travel agents are under threat of extinction due to the rapid technological development, the advice of which is being replaced by the recommendation algorithms of online services for travelers. The social aspect has been added to the technological aspect, which negatively affects the demand for specialists in the industry: the tourism sector is one of those that have been hit hardest by the coronavirus. The profession of “cashier” may also disappear – retailers are relying on self-checkout counters, which reduce queues in stores, and are testing micro markets (vending machines) in the entrances of houses.
However, in the short term, the unemployment rate may rise. Some companies can move part of their staff to full-time telecommuting and four-day workweeks to cut costs. It will take time for specialists who enter the labor market to find a new offer. To a high degree, unemployment is caused by a mismatch between supply and demand (Kahn et al.). Thus, only those employers who will suffer from this inconsistency (their demand is higher than the supply of workers available) will offer measures allowing telecommuting for their workers. The rest will rely on the free market and competition among potential workers. To find a balance, the government should introduce some laws allowing less protected groups to save their workplaces. Although there have been some measures like The CARES Act intended to solve the economic impact of the coronavirus pandemic through direct financial payments to Americans, legal acts are also needed to allow workers to remain in the labor market. Without these measures, it will be difficult for the country’s economy to adapt to the already rapidly changing labor market.
References
Anders, G. “As the U.S. battles a pandemic, these 12 jobs and two key skills are surging”. LinkedIn, 2020.
Cajner, T. et al. “Tracking labor market developments during the covid-19 pandemic: A preliminary assessment.” Finance and Economics Discussion Series 2020-030. Washington: Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System, 2020.
Gould, E. “Jobs and unemployment”. Economic Policy Institute, 2020.
Horsley, S. “3 Months Of Hell: U.S. Economy Drops 32.9% In Worst GDP Report Ever.” NPR, 2020.
United Nations. “COVID-19 crisis exposes need to govern migration in a more humane and effective way”. UN.org, 2020. Web.