Introduction
The conflict in Libya is a result of both endogenous and exogenous political factors that have resulted in the division of the nation into two administrative groups. The unrest began in 2011, amidst a wave of revolutions in Arab countries across Africa and the Middle East. The demonstrations were largely peaceful, and their goals were to bring an end to regimes that had ruled the nations for decades. However, the situation in Libya was different from the rest because it led to civil war and international military intervention that divided the country. For the last 10 years, the European Union, together with other international organizations, has worked hard to mitigate the crisis. However, their inaction in the past few years has given countries like Russia and Turkey the opportunity to pursue their selfish agendas. The situation has been widely studied in the area of conflict management. There is hope that the involved parties will resolve the conflict that is gradually disintegrating Libya’s social, political, and economic structures.
The Roots and History of the Conflict
The current conflict in Libya resulted from Muammar Gaddafi’s ouster from power in 2011 after a 40-year rule. The ouster occurred amidst a wave of revolutions across Africa and the Middle East, commonly referred to as Arab Spring (Leasing, 2020). The movement was experienced in countries that had been ruled by dictatorial regimes for several decades, and that wanted to political change. In Libya, the transformation was implemented through the aid of a NATO-led campaign, and Gadaffi’s government fell. Militias have proliferated in Libya as succeeding governments failed to stop them and end their control of regions and public amenities (Leasing, 2020). After the ouster of Gaddafi, militia groups became stronger and weapons proliferated in the nation as different factions sought control.
In 2011, rebel groups formed the National Transition Council to run the regions that they controlled, amidst the unrest in Libya. The government resisted their expansion agenda, and tensions began. The North Atlantic Treaty Organization (NATO) forces intervened after clashes between government forces and rebel groups. Their goal was to protect civilians from attacks as violence was heightened in the country (Leasing, 2020). Atrocities by government forces compelled the International Criminal Court (ICC) to issue an arrest warrant against Gaddafi and his associates. The fall of Tripoli marked the beginning of the end of Gaddafi’s rule, even though groups allied to his regime continued fighting against the rebels and NATO forces. On 20 October 2011, his administrative era ended after the capture of his hometown of Sirte, the bombing of his motorcade by NATO, and the consequent capture and killing by rebels.
After the fall of Gaddafi, Libya became a failed state and its restoration began. During the revolution, military members, revolutionary brigades, and numerous armed groups joined forces with rebel groups (Marcuzzi, 2022). Anti-Gaddafi groups were formed across the country, and were largely based on ethnic allegiance. After the war ended, these groups declined to surrender their weapons, and some of them morphed into criminal gangs and extremist groups (Leasing, 2020). In order to mitigate the situation, the National Transition Council asked the groups to register with the ministry of defense and work together with the government. A notable figure was General Khalifa Haftar, whose was the leader of the Libyan National Group. In 2012, militia groups affiliated with Al-Qaeda launched an attack against the US embassy in Benghazi (Marcuzzi, 2022). This led to a crackdown on illegal militias, leading to a second civil war.
The second civil war was a conflict between opposing groups that fought to control Libya and fill the administrative gap left by Gaddafi’s death; the Tobruk government and the government of the General National Alliance (GNA) (Leasing, 2020). The situation worsened after a disputed election in 2014. Disagreements between different political groups led to widespread violence in cities, and the division of Libya into two distinct administrations: one in the east and the other in the west. The Government of National Accord (GNA) is based in Tripoli and is led by al-Sarraj while the Tobruk government is led by Haftar. The GNA is recognized by the United Nations as the legitimate administration (Marcuzzi, 2022). However, it has little influence among the citizens as they oppose its politics that are based largely on Islamic teachings. Many regard the leader as a potential dictator with the potential to replicate Gaddafi’s ways. The Tobruk government receives political backing from Egypt and the United Arab Emirates (UAE) while the GNA is supported by Qatar, Turkey, and Sudan (Mezran and Varvelli, 2017). The lack of consensus between the two governments continues to be a source of conflict and unrest in Libya.
Attempts at International Intervention
Over the last few years, several international bodies and foreign nations have tried to mitigate the situation and bring lasting peace. Countries with strategic and economic interests in Libya have engaged in talks and supported the government that they side with in the conflict. The GNA receives support from the United Nations, Qatar, Turkey, Italy, and certain western countries (Leasing, 2020). On the other hand, the LNA is backed by Russia, France, the UAE, Egypt, Jordan, and Saudi Arabia (Leasing, 2020). The foreign nations have ignored an arms embargo that was issued by the UN, and as a result, they have transported weapons and drones to Libya, thus escalating the conflict.
In 2015, the UN brokered a cease-fire, thus bringing a temporary reprieve to citizens, in 2016, leaders of the GNA arrived in Tripoli and the Islamist government agreed to hand over power to the new administration. A few months later, rival leaders agreed to reintegrate the two factions of Libya’s National Oil Corporation (NOC). However, the process was delayed by the lack of approval from the supporters of the Tobruk administration. In 2018, French President Macron chaired a meeting between Haftar, al-Serraj, and parliamentary leaders. The goal was to find ways to end the conflict and the possibility of an election. Foreign nations have been criticized for fueling the conflict as they fight for their interests. For example, Russia has been accused of sending mercenaries and Turkey has sent soldiers and Syrian recruits to fight the opposing administration (Mezran and Varvelli, 2017). A 2020 diplomatic meeting in Berlin failed due to the opposing interests of different nations.
The Current Situation
A decade after the termination of Gaddafi’s 42-year regime, Libya is still struggling to end the conflict that ensued. The problem has been aggravated by foreign nations that have offered financial and technical support to rival administrations in order to protect their interests in the countries (United States Institute of Peace, 2020). The efforts by the United Nations to find lasting peace are not yet successful because of the influence of peace conferences that are funded by nations with interests in Libya (Marcuzzi, 2022). In the meantime, the country’s borders remain insecure, and the smuggling of weapons and contraband has increased significantly. Conflicts between ethnic groups and tribes continue, and they have rendered the process of finding lasting peace difficult (Leasing, 2020). An election that was planned for an interim president was postponed because of legal and security issues. Terrorism has become a widespread phenomenon and clashes between rival groups are prevalent as they fight for the control of state assets (Mezran and Varvelli, 2017). The government in the east swore in a new prime minister and hopes to be proclaimed the legitimate administration. At the same time, the government in Tripoli declined to hand over power, thus propagating the standoff between the two (United States Institute of Peace, 2020). The two governments are in conflict, and the political crisis continues to deepen. The country’s oil terminals are fully functional, even though the struggle for their control continues (Robinson, 2020). Libya’s social, economic, and political situation is worse that it was prior to the ouster of Gaddafi. Foreign nations like Russia and Turkey have strengthened their presence in the county, making the resolution of the conflict more difficult (United States Institute of Peace, 2020). Moreover, the increased involvement of nations within the region is likely to result in a proxy war.
Lessons for the Management of Conflict
The resolution of the conflict in Libya has been unsuccessful and it has offered several lessons for the management of conflict. First, it is important to fully understand the root cause of a conflict before intervening. For instance, the crisis in Libya is multicultural, and it requires a versatile approach (Weighill and Gaug, 2018). In that regard, it is important to adopt the approaches of both cultural and multicultural conflict management. Second, it is important for all players to have shared goals and values. The 2020 Berlin conference revealed the dysfunction of multilateral platforms in conflict management. The involvement of all stakeholders in a conflict is imperative to the finding of a solution. However, if they lack common end goals or moral commitments, then the process could be counterproductive. Participants in the conference did not agree on any value as the welfare of the Libyan people was unimportant to them (Weighill and Gaug, 2018). Egypt and the UAE continued to supply weapons in violation of the conference’s resolutions. Moreover, the participants did not agree on implementing a permanent cease-fire. Third, it is critical for the involved parties to hold negotiations without the influence of external players. Managing the conflict in Libya is difficult because the two rival governments are receiving advice from the various foreign nations that support their efforts (Robinson, 2020). In that regard, the discussions that are held are primarily based on the interests of the foreigners rather than the welfare of the Libyan people (Weighill and Gaug, 2018). The failed cease-fire efforts in Moscow revealed that Haftar relied heavily on foreign nations for counsel, and was incapable of making independent decisions (Robinson, 2020). Disputes regarding the control of state assets, organizations, and oil reserves are likely to continue.
Prospects for Constructive Change in the Area
The resolution of the conflict in Libya will not be possible with the continued intervention of foreign nations. The major challenge in the process is the vested economic and political interests of the involved parties. For example, Turkey and Russia are actively involved, and the support that they provide prioritized their interests rather than the welfare of the Libyan people (Robinson, 2020). The efforts by the UN to find lasting peace have failed because the agency lacks the authority necessary to restrain foreign nations from interfering in the process (Marcuzzi, 2022). Moreover, it appears that the UN has lost its credibility with the Libyan people with regard to brokering a deal for lasting peace. Another potential source of change in the area is high-level diplomatic engagement. The United States and other members of the Permanent Five should play more active roles and take action against nations that violate the resolution of the UN regarding the mitigation of the conflict (Weighill and Gaug, 2018). For example, countries that violate the arms embargo should be punished for worsening the situation. The failure of the Berlin conference is evidence that foreign nations are not ready to stop interfering in the process (Weighill and Gaug, 2018). By now, they have invested a lot to end their involvement and allow the Libyan groups to find a solution on their own. Prospects for constructive change are minimal, even though all is not lost.
Conclusion
The international community welcomed the fall of Gaddafi as a win for both the Libyan people and the world. However, since the ouster, the country has descended into a state of economic, social, and political degeneration. The conflict in Libya is primarily between two groups that are fighting for the control of the nation. The Government of National Accord (GNA) and the Tobruk government have tussled for many years, and they have failed to reach a peace consensus. A weak government, the proliferation of militias, and the absence of America’s intervention, Libya has continued to fail socially, economically, and politically. Foreign nations, including Russia, Turkey, Egypt, and the UAE continue to compete for greater control of Libya’s resources.
References
Leasing, U. (2020). Understanding Libya since Gaddafi. Hurst & Company Publishers.
Marcuzzi, S. (2022). The EU, NATO and the Libya Conflict: Anatomy of a failure. Routledge.
Mezran, K., & Varvelli, A. (2017). Foreign actors in Libya’s crisis. Ledizioni Publishing.
Robinson, K. (2020). “Who’s who in Libya’s war?” Council on Foreign Relations. Web.
United States Institute of Peace. (2020, Dec 30). The current situation in Libya: A USIP fact sheet. Web.
Weighill, R., and Gaug, F. (2018). The cauldron: NATO’s campaign in Libya. Oxford University Press.