The Concept of Anticipatory Logistics and Its Origins
In “Anticipatory Logistics: The Army’s Answer to Supply Chain Management.” Lenzini (2002) reports how the Army has commenced field trials of this approach to supply chain management. The experiments involve varying mixes of information technology and procedures that will optimize maintenance schedules and replenish class III (petroleum, oils, and lubricants) and class V (ammunition) supplies to troops in forward bases, especially those deployed in war zones.
The goal of anticipatory logistics is evidently to improve forecasting and prioritize the consumables needed by fighting units on the frontlines. Given the tremendous range of supplies needed, increasingly scarce forward bases that permit the luxury of stockpiles, and the long transit times from the continental U.S.A. to battle zones in Iraq and Afghanistan, the task of keeping combat units rolling and able to do damage to the enemy is no easy one.
The first published report about anticipatory logistics is fairly recent. In 1997, the 4th Infantry Division Experimental Force and Army Training and Doctrine Command had shown that “distribution-based, centralized and anticipatory logistics” worked at the Army division level (Anonymous, 1998, 40). The goal was, as ever, to have logistic support arrive at the right time in the right place. The experiment relied on the Combat Service Support System and on combining the support group organic to maneuver units with maintenance, medical platoons and a support operations section into a centralized support group tasked to stay close to the battlefield.
By early 2001 (Anonymous, 2000, 57), another important element of anticipatory logistics seemed ready for more extensive testing. The initial experiments involved engine diagnostic systems mounted on an Abrams tank. The automated diagnostic and prognostic sensors were meant to “predict” mechanical problems and hence, transmit parts requisitions so that constant readiness could be maintained.
Context
The drive to predict supply requirements better with the use of information technology goes back to the Electronic Data Interchange concept in the late 1980s. Even in the world of DOS-based systems that prevailed then, suppliers and customers liked the idea of dedicated networks that would alert the supplier when stocks ran low (Kantor and Burrows 2). Absent automated inventory methods, customers implemented manual counts and, in effect, copied the supplier over the EDI link so that the latter could gear up or suggest a replenishment shipment almost without conscious effort on the part of the buyer.
Moving on to the contemporary era of a “global village” where manufacturers are essentially free to procure the most advantageous quality-price bundle from overseas suppliers, supply chain management (SCM) has come into its own as a vital management discipline. In turn, processors and assemblers forge supply links with their “value chain” consisting of distributors and large retailers located domestically or anywhere in the world that shipments can be affordably arranged.
Anticipatory logistics merely emphasize one vital aspect of SCM: avoid wasteful inventory stockpiles and enormous carrying costs by arranging for critical supplies to arrive “just in time” for assembly or production into finished goods. It goes without saying, of course, that all supply management schemes should ensure the right quality or specifications, quantity and end-destination.
The nature of modern armies dictates an almost equal emphasis on repair and maintenance. Projecting power with a navy, air force and armor puts a premium on keeping vehicles fueled and properly maintained.
There are two aspects unique to the military establishment. First, Lenzini (13) points out, Army SCM must actually make provision for a backward flow of men and equipment. That is, casualties may require more expertise than field hospitals can provide; the same applies to seriously damaged tanks, artillery, ships and planes.
The second aspect is inherent in the nature of government. Anticipatory logistics operates within the context of fulfilling the mission and keeping the maximum “rolling stock” battle-effective. The cost of supplies and diagnostic equipment is a minor matter.
In a Business Setting
This is not the case in for-profit private enterprises. Take the case of Federal Express. With as many distribution hubs and dozens of branch/pick-up/delivery networks in 15 countries, FedEx must be price-competitive. More important, the courier service cannot afford to have its hundreds of planes and vans idled for lack of fuel or proper maintenance. Evidently, FedEx must apply some form of anticipatory logistics, no matter that computer-aided aircraft and van diagnostics remain on the ground as part of maintenance facilities. Only by keeping the entire fleet available for continuous flying can FedEx fulfill its marketing promise as the essential supply chain management tool for the world.
Works Cited
______. “Division Experiment Evaluates Force XXI Logistics.” Army Logistician. 1998.
______. “Anticipatory Logistics Experiment Set.” Army Logistician. 2000.
Federal Information & News Dispatch, Inc. (FIND). 202-544- 4800. “Ground Logistics Command And Control” Commerce Business Daily Issue: PSA-2873 2001.
Kantor, Michael; James H. Burrows (1996). “Electronic Data Interchange (EDI)”. National Institute of Standards and Technology.
Lenzini, Joshua M. “Anticipatory Logistics: The Army’s Answer to Supply Chain Management.” Army Logistician. 2002.