The human population has seen unprecedented changes in numbers, demographics, and social patterns. The world today is much different from what it was less than a century ago: a third of the world’s people lived in economically advanced countries in 1950, while the end of the last century witnessed a significant decrease in the figures. Considering the drastic changes that have occurred in the last several decades, the issue of human growth and development requires special attention. The reasons for the population explosion, the relatively low likelihood of it dying down, and the future perspectives for global growth and development must be analyzed. This paper will answer these questions and thoroughly investigate the matter.
Advances in science and technology, urbanization, and the narrowing gap between economic discrepancies in developing countries have contributed to increased life expectancy and higher quality of life. This is especially evident if we consider the predicted trends of population growth in developing countries: immense growth in the future will take place in less advanced countries like India, China, and some nations in Africa. This growth can be explained by expeditious movement rates from rural to urban areas in those states. This movement is usually caused by the young population seeking employment, a tendency that creates another challenge for developing societies: overpopulation. Overpopulation leads to health hazards such as inadequate housing, the absence of proper healthcare, clean drinking water, and sanitation. Cities are becoming more extensive, so overpopulation issues are becoming more and more evident.
Diving into the history of population growth has been limited by disease, famine, drought, and natural disasters for thousands of years. In the era of the formation of agriculture (8000 BC), approximately 5 million people populated the globe (Lutz et al., 2017, p.4). By the beginning of modern times, that number had reached 200 million people, the so-called “natural increase in population” occurs as the birth rate exceeds the death rate (Lutz et al., 2017, p.5). In a single country, population growth can occur both due to natural causes and due to the movement of people from other localities. A particularly sharp drop in mortality was observed in developing countries after the First and Second World Wars due to the beginning of the spread of the achievements of modern medicine.
In the years following the end of the great wars, there was a sharp increase in the overall marriage and fertility rates. The number of births over the years increased from 2.2 million to 4.1 million per year (Lutz et al., 2017, p. 13). Families with four or five children were more common, as it was back in the late 19th century.
The baby boom started to slow down temporarily at the end of the 50s; fertility in all developed countries declined and for example, in 1976, the U.S. birth rate hit a low of about 1.75 children per woman. In particular, the birth rate in the USSR among the European republics first fell in 1967 below the level of population replacement (2.1 births per woman). In poorer countries, mainly in Africa, there were five children per woman on average around the same period.
Since the 1950s, there has been a population growth trend in poor economies, especially in parts of Africa and Asia. This is due to several reasons, such as frequent migration, climate impacts, and military conflicts. The United Nations projects that by 2050 about 86 percent of the Earth’s population will be residing in the world’s poorer nations, as these poorer nations will have an expanded urban area (Lutz et al., 2017, p.7). Less wealthy nations with a significant proportion of the middle class will see an upward trend in population size. Just nine countries — including India, Nigeria, and Pakistan — will constitute about half of the annual growth.
With recent medical advances that have positively influenced life expectancy, coupled with decreased birth rates, industrial states like the United States have seen alarmingly aging among their population. This exacerbates unresolved socio-economic problems: with the reduction in the number of able-bodied states, the economy is under pressure to distribute its resources evenly among those eligible for pensions and social security programs. Concerns about this are pushing governments to debate raising the retirement age threshold to keep the labor force as long as possible.
Relevant to the cause, most wealthy states will experience population declines over the next 50 years (Lutz et al., 2017, p.12). Germany is predicted to go from 82 million to 74 million; Japan will go down from 126 million to 107 million, and Russia will see a sharp decline from 142 million to 128 million (Lutz et al., 2017, p.13). If it were not for its high desirability for immigration, the U.S. would also experience population decline. Countries that have enjoyed the benefits of high quality of life and greater life expectancies like those in Europe, North America, and Australia, will decline in natural growth. Low mortality and similarly low decrease in birth will eventually lead to demographic stagnation, proportionally stagnant economic growth, and possible loss of political autonomy.
Regarding political matters, a higher population means higher stakes for international politics. The UN expects the world population to be 9.7 billion people in 2050 (Lutz et al., 2017, p.22). The ability of many Governments to meet the needs of their citizens will be disproportionately low compared to the number of citizens who will count on good living conditions. This issue is particularly relevant in the context of growing concern about the depletion of natural resources: minerals have always been a significant part of international political conflicts when States fought for territory and power over material goods.
Another contemporary issue relevant to the causes of world growth and development is the emergence of global pandemics. The ever-increasing levels of population density create an inevitable increase in the likelihood of the rapid spread of disease. The coronavirus pandemic that started in late 2019 and is still going on, has caused millions of confirmed deaths worldwide. The highest mortality rates were documented in developed American and European countries. However, the liability of these statistics could be hindered by the fact that developing countries are usually less competent in tracking demographic statistics. Not only has COVID-19 caused immense suffering to millions of people around the globe, but it also has disadvantaged economic development and international mobility.
The rapid population growth rates have been caused by development in critical areas such as science, technology, medicine, and education. Global urbanization, movement of the workforce, military conflict, are all factors that have contributed to these tremendous demographic changes over the last centuries. The future of the planet remains somewhat unclear. With worryingly rapid rates of resource depletion and growing concern over the possibility of more worldwide pandemics, it is hard to pinpoint what will put an end to the exponential growth of the population. It could be political conflict, a deadly crisis, or climate change for all that is known.
Reference
Lutz, W., Butz, W. P., & KC, S. (2017). World Population and Human Capital in the Twenty-first Century: An Overview. Oxford University Press.