Current and Recent Economic Conditions
The Canadian economy is currently experiencing growth that had already surpassed, in some ways, the pre-pandemic period when there was a significant recession. It is evidenced by GDP and unemployment figures, which slightly exceed the values of January-February 2020 after a prolonged increase from May 2020 to today (Statistics Canada, 2022a; Statistics Canada, 2022b). These indicators indicate the return of production to pre-crisis levels, as well as the restoration of the purchasing power of citizens. However, several signals show negative changes in this situation in the economy. First, since the pandemic’s beginning, when inflation was even below zero, it has risen to almost 8%, hitting new all-time highs (Trading Economics, 2022a). The situation also required appropriate interventions from the authorities, who began to return the country’s key rate to the level of 2018 (Trading Economics, 2022b). These actions are caused by the threshold of a new economic crisis due to the complicated geopolitical situation in Eastern Europe.
It is very likely that against this background, GDP growth and unemployment may reach a plateau if the growth trend of the critical rate and inflation continues. High vital rates make it difficult to lend to households and businesses, which has caused, for example, housing construction and mortgage lending to sag significantly (Statistics Canada, 2022c). If, in the first quarter of each year, such a decrease is natural, then these trends are already noticeable during the year before and after that. Inflation and complicated lending significantly reduce the purchasing power of the population and, accordingly, business revenue. Thus, GDP growth, for now, is still recovering from the pandemic, adjusted for inflation. The future state of the Canadian economy is unlikely to boom, given the dynamics of these indicators. This paper analyzes two companies: McDonald’s and Starbucks.
Political and Social Trends
The selected companies represent the food industry, implying establishments for visitors. Working with delivery aggregators is an essential step in business development dictated, among other things, by the pandemic trends. Due to the long-term consequences of the spread of the virus, political security trends are likely to remain in place even after the situation is brought under control. Therefore, these companies must increase operating costs to maintain stricter security conditions for customers on an ongoing basis. As the financial analysis shows, Starbucks significantly increased its long-term debt ahead of 2020, which proved to be a financial cushion as part of the store closures and crisis (Macrotrends, 2022a). At the same time, the company could significantly increase revenue even minus the cost of goods sold in 2021, which indicates the social trends of returning to everyday life and the value of such actions.
A similar trend is observed at McDonald’s, although in smaller volumes in revenue, but in more enormous net profits, indicating efficiency. The only difference is that this company’s assets/liabilities ratio did not experience significant jumps (Macrotrends, 2022b). Share prices sank in 2020 but began to recover quickly and rise by 2022, after which they began to decline again. Growth is likely due to adaptation to new political trends and changes and works with delivering food and drinks and the gradual return of visitors. A disruption in the supply chain most likely caused the fall due to the aggravated situation in the east of Europe, which created new political trends.
The Industry in Which Companies Operate
The restaurant industry, which includes McDonald’s and Starbucks as separate representatives, has been experiencing significant difficulties since the pandemic lockdowns and partial bans. On the eve of the new year, 2021, legislation banned sales during a specific period, significantly hitting industries that stocked food for the holiday (Bundale, 2021). This ban affected Starbucks and McDonald’s chain outlets less, but revenue was probably lost.
These companies directly participate in several trends at once. Starbucks may have lost share prices due to pay scandals, leading to the formation of workers’ unions in Canada, following the example of the United States (Subramaniam, 2022). On the other hand, the company pays for travel to places where abortion is legal for its employees (Chapman & Durbin, 2022). This balance at the social level creates unsustainable dynamics in stocks. In addition, both Starbucks and McDonald’s have exited the Russian market, which will affect the companies’ revenue in 2022 financial statements (Reuters, 2022a; Reuters, 2022b). Accordingly, globally, companies are beginning to experience a crisis due to the exit from a large market and the disruption of supply chains, while in the Canadian market, they are also forced to adapt to security conditions due to the consequences of the pandemic, but they survive these obstacles much better.
Financial Statements
The Revenue/Sales Dollar Amounts and Net Income After-Tax Dollar Amounts
Table 1. Income Statements (Macrotrends, 2022a; Macrotrends, 2022b).
Financial Ratios
Table 2. Financial Ratios (Macrotrends, 2022a; Macrotrends, 2022b).
The Business/Product Cycle of the Companies
McDonald’s adapts its dishes to different countries and offers various seasonal novelties, the best of which remain on the menu. However, there is no horizontal diversification in McDonald’s products, while Starbucks enters the markets for retail coffee in packages. The company’s increased expenses on the line expansion are noticeably reflected in the crisis year in the net profit margin. McDonald’s, being a more financially efficient organization, generally has more robust liquidity and financial leverage, except for highly high long-term debt. Accordingly, Starbucks’ production cycles are expanding, and the supply chain is becoming more complex while covering a more expansive geography in logistics, including retail. McDonald’s, like Starbucks, is a non-cyclical company, so one of the first to recover from the severe restrictions of the pandemic and showed significant growth in shares and revenue. However, current product sales are only growing, like those of competitors. At the same time, it is much more difficult for local networks to adapt and compete with the ability to deliver and maintain the market price of products with global companies.
The Risks That Apply to the Companies’ Stocks
Currently, the world is on the verge of a significant crisis due to complications in supply chains due to the geopolitical situation in Europe. Shares of non-cyclical companies during an economic downturn are protective for investors, but both organizations are deprived of a large market and, accordingly, financial resources to pay dividends. Participation in local scandals does not significantly impact the share price. The balance will be found through regular adaptation to new crisis challenges. It is worth noting that McDonald’s survived the pandemic better than Starbucks, but Starbucks has diversified its business into new markets with a firm brand name. All negative factors are balanced to some extent by positive ones; therefore, it is worth evaluating possible risks precisely from a number of negatively influencing determinants. In addition, the companies are already showing a significant boom in growth, which is currently accompanied by a fall, which is likely to continue on a small scale until the situation in the global market stabilizes.
References
Bundale, B. (2021). Frustration, anger grow among restaurateurs over lack of data linking industry to COVID-19. The Globe and Mail.
Chapman, M. and Durbin, D.-A. (2022). Starbucks will cover travel for workers seeking abortions. The Globe and Mail.
Macrotrends. (2022a). Starbucks – 30 Year Stock Price History | SBUX.
Macrotrends. (2022b). McDonald’s Market Cap 2010-2022 | MCD.
Reuters. (2022a). Golden Arches make way for hamburger and fries after McDonald’s Russian exit. The Globe and Mail.
Reuters. (2022b). Starbucks to leave Russian market after nearly 15 years. The Globe and Mail.
Statistics Canada. (2022a). Gross domestic product (GDP) at basic prices, by industry, monthly (x 1,000,000).
Statistics Canada. (2022b). Employment and unemployment rate, monthly, unadjusted for seasonality.
Statistics Canada. (2022c). Canada Mortgage and Housing Corporation, housing starts, under construction and completions, all areas, quarterly.
Subramaniam, V. (2022). Wave of unionization of Starbucks stores in the U.S. shows signs of making its way to Canada. The Globe and Mail.
Trading Economics. (2022a). Canada Inflation Rate.
Trading Economics. (2022b). Canada Interest Rate.