The next US presidential election will be held on November 3, 2020. As usual, the Americans will choose the president of the country along with his candidacy for the position of vice president. Traditionally, candidates from two parties – the Democratic and the Republican – are fighting for victory. In the summer before the elections, the parties hold huge congresses and primaries, at which one representative is elected at the upcoming races.
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It is already known for certain that the 45th President of the United States, Donald Trump, plans to take part in the next election. He officially declared this during his inauguration for the first term. Most likely, he will be the candidate from the Republicans, since the vast majority of the main political leaders of the Republican Party, who could compete with Trump, have publicly expressed their support for the current president.
The Trump presidency is characterized by a huge scandal over Russian interference in the 2016 elections, as well as a possible conspiracy of Trump with the Kremlin. In addition, the 45th president of the United States has already taken a number of important geopolitical decisions to withdraw from international agreements and is constantly in conflict with the parliament and other federal agencies of the United States (“US election 2020: Which Democratic candidate will take on Trump?”).
Due to Trump’s unpredictable policies, Republican Party support is gradually declining. In the midterm elections in the fall of 2018, Republicans still left a shaky majority in the Senate, but the majority in the House of Representatives are already Democrats, which led to lengthy debates about the adoption of the country’s budget and the longest shutdown in U.S. history.
The outcome of the presidential elections of 2020 is challenging to prognosticate, but some statements can be made with certainty. There is a high chance of Democratic party winning the race due to the overall presence of strong and competent candidates with clear and outlined views and policies. In addition, these individuals are already opposed to Trump’s administration and consider winning over him as the primary goal. However, there is a decent likelihood of Trump winning the race due to his support groups, which were already underestimated in the 2016 elections (Burns et al.).
The given polls showed many Americans, especially young ones, how the electoral system works and what motivates people to support Trump. Elections of 2012 must be mentioned due to the fact that according to numerous surveys, people who voted for Obama were the ones who voted for Trump. The majority of these individuals are mostly tired and opposed to the current political establishment, thus, these voters wished for big changes to happen both under Obama’s and Trump’s administrations.
Moody’s Analytics has released its own forecast for the 2020 US presidential election. According to analysts, current US President Donald Trump will win. Moreover, two of the three presented models give Trump a more confident victory in comparison with the 2016 election results. Moody’s forecasts for the U.S. election were highly accurate in the past, with the exception of 2016 (“Regulatory News”). Then analysts could not predict the high turnout, which played in favor of Trump.
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It should be noted that all of Moody’s models predict Trump’s victory, even if by the end of 2020, the US economy falls to multi-year lows, and the stock market crashes by 9 percent. In other words, Trump is expected to win despite the stock market downturn and a weakening economy. Moody’s uses the so-called “wallet” model, which is based on three variables: gas prices, housing prices, and changes in real personal income.
Voters tend to rate higher gas prices negatively, higher housing prices, and higher incomes positively. Moody’s uses its economic models to predict the values of these variables several months before the election (“Regulatory News”). However, it should be noted that Moody’s analysts believe that Trump will not be removed from his post and will complete his first presidential term in full.
The congressional elections of 2018 will also play a major role in determining the outcome of upcoming elections. It is critical to note that these elections are symptomatic of big political realignments, which are the result of people’s and media’s hostility against Trump. Although it is expected that supporters of different candidates will have certain conflicts, but in the case of Trump, the political clash is much more pronounced. Therefore, it is vital to overview the biggest challengers of the upcoming presidential elections.
Elizabeth Warren has the highest chance of becoming a single Democratic candidate. Warren is 70 years old, but she appeared in big politics not so long ago – she was elected a senator from Massachusetts in 2013. Shortly after her election, Warren published The Eleven Commandments of Progressivism, and this work made her an idol of the left-wing of the Democrats. In 2015, she entered the top 20 of the most influential people in the world, according to the Bloomberg version, and then many expected her to be nominated for president (“Meet Elizabeth”). However, Elizabeth Warren shocked everyone with her refusal to participate in the struggle for power. She withdrew from being the banner of feminism in American politics, although many expected her to do just that.
Warren advocates universal free medicine, and for increasing programs to support the poor through additional taxes on the rich. Also, a senator from Massachusetts openly sympathizes with all migrants entering America and promises to fight Trump’s cruel attitude to illegal immigrants. Now Warren is at the peak of her popularity, even a loud scandal with Native American roots, which she attributed to herself in order to receive benefits, did not undermine her (“Meet Elizabeth”). Her position in the Democratic Party is reinforced by the precarious situation of moderate former Vice President Joe Biden due to a scandal with the activities of his son in Ukraine, as well as the poor health of another left-wing radical Bernie Sanders.
Bernie Sanders is another heavyweight of American politics, which has serious support among the population. Since 1990, Sanders has been working in the House of Representatives, and since 2007 – a senator from the state of Vermont. During the 2016 elections, he lost the Clinton primaries of the Democratic Party with a slight advantage (“Meet Bernie”). Sanders is fond of the Scandinavian model of democracy and is actively trying to introduce it in the United States.
In addition, the senator considers climate change one of the largest threats to the country’s national security. He also seeks to overcome poverty and social inequality (“Meet Bernie”). In foreign policy, Sanders brutally opposes Russia and Iran, urging each time to strengthen sanctions against these countries. In mid-February 2019, he officially confirmed that he would run, calling Trump a pathological liar.
The key local races are the ones, which will occur in neutral states, such as Florida, Wisconsin, Nevada, Arizona, Michigan, North Carolina, and Pennsylvania. Although it is critical to winning in the given states in order for a future president to have an edge, the biggest holder of electoral votes among neutral states with 29 one is Florida (“US election 2020: Which Democratic candidate will take on Trump?”). The Florida election institute institution used is a mixed system of electoral inspectors and electoral justice.
Based on the literal meaning of the determination of the election commission of the Florida Election Code, it is a quasi-judicial body with jurisdiction over matters related to violations of election laws. The commission has the status of a state agency under the state legal department and includes the legal, investigative, and administrative departments (Burns et al.). However, it is independent of the State Attorney General, and the jurisdiction of the commission does not include competencies for verifying the qualifications of candidates, organizing the election process, and counting votes.
An election commission is made up of nine commissioners appointed by the state governor and approved by the state senate in accordance with the following procedure. The President of the Senate and the Speaker of the House of Representatives, minority leaders of each of the houses of parliament submit lists of seven candidates for election commissioner for selection by the state governor, of which the governor single-handedly selects two suitable candidates (“US election 2020: Which Democratic candidate will take on Trump?”). The governor appoints the head of the state election commission within his powers from his candidates.
In conclusion, voting in the US presidential election will be held on November 3, 2020. Republicans traditionally support the incumbent president from their party if he plans to go for a second term, so Donald Trump can expect that he will not have to participate in the primaries. The Democratic Party is just getting ready to choose its candidate, and former Vice President Joe Biden is considered the favorite. Trump announced the start of a new election campaign right after he took office as president of the United States.
Burns, Alexander et al. “Who’s Running for President in 2020?” The New York Times. 2019. Web.
“Meet Bernie” Bernie, 2019. Web.
“Meet Elizabeth” Warren, 2019. Web.
“Regulatory News” Moody’s Analytics, 2019. Web.
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“US election 2020: Which Democratic candidate will take on Trump?” BBC News. 2019. Web.