Introduction
Numerous people have stopped taking care of their retirement security in old age, becoming accustomed to having the state accomplish it. At the same time, the state system of pensions and various social benefits has become hostage to what has brought it privileges in the past. Therefore, understanding the basic economic categories and their impact on pensions can be a solution to numerous problems for every person who is ever faced with pension plans.
Influencing Factors
Firstly, it is necessary to comprehend that pensions cannot be the same for everyone, and numerous factors influence their availability and amount. Among them are age, marital status, number of dependents, health, life expectancy, and other sources of income. For example, if a person quits before retirement age, one will not lose the right to benefits and will be paid for a more extended period, but the amount will be smaller (Bilbiie et al., 2021). In this case, the amount received for the first time becomes the basis for calculating further costs. Marital status and the number of dependents are other factors that directly affect the retirement plan.
Although, at first glance, it would seem that family ties have nothing in common with work, getting married affects benefits. It increases awareness of the need to save and boost income, which can positively impact the pension. At the same time, when receiving Social Security benefits, some family members are likewise eligible (Bilbiie et al., 2021). Moreover, Social Security replaces a certain percentage of pre-retirement income based on lifetime earnings. The pension as income should be divided by 4 percent to understand the annual revenue provision fully.
Health is one of the most important factors when deciding whether to retire or plan for future benefits. The central issue is that, in most cases, one loses an employer’s health insurance when one retires (Wang & Lu, 2019). Moreover, having chronic illnesses or severe health problems implies high costs, and it is crucial to consider this when calculating the ability to leave a job. Furthermore, it is necessary to remember the life expectancy, which depends on the inheritance and how each person spends their time. Thus, it is evident that all the indicators described above should be investigated in detail before establishing a pension plan, as they affect the benefits and any future planning.
The Ratio of Risk and Return
The risk/return ratio is the most critical concept for any planning, which states that the return is directly proportional to the risk. Numerous examples can be built around the principle of the relationship between profitability and risk, and this basis of investment activity can be described differently in practice. If an individual receives a significant profit, his risk rate is greater (Wang et al., 2019). If an individual, for example, relies on a risk-free rate, one gets a small profit and consequently, small savings, which may be insufficient for retirement. Deciding to retire early is irrational in a low-risk environment because the funds accumulated will not be sufficient for an extended period. Therefore, the risk/return ratio should be optimal, aiming to increase returns while decreasing risk.
Asset Allocation
A successful asset allocation strategy requires one to adhere to it over the entire investment horizon. As a hypothetical simplified example, it is possible to assume that an investor determines that he cannot emotionally tolerate losses over 20% or volatility above 10% (as measured by standard deviation). Using worst-case annual returns rather than specifically drawdowns, it can be stated that the investor has a low-risk tolerance, which means he should not be in anything more aggressive than a 40% stock / 60% bond portfolio (Wang et al., 2019). Otherwise, one may abandon the strategy at the most inopportune moment. By reducing the risk of a portfolio, a person accepts a lower expected return. For example, investing exclusively in stocks maximizes volatility and risk, creating the possibility of losing money in the short term. Owning stocks minimizes the effects of the risks of owning bonds.
Age likewise affects asset redistribution, and the most straightforward calculation is “age in bonds.” It may be appropriate for an investor with a low-risk tolerance but is excessively conservative. A better, though slightly more complicated formula might be [(age-40) * 2] (Zhao & Wang, 2022). Bonds do not appear in the portfolio until age 40, which allows for maximum growth because early active capital growth is significant, accelerating the transition to prioritizing capital preservation as one approaches retirement age. Capital growth is no longer as crucial after retirement, but capital preservation becomes a priority. Creating a balanced mix of different assets is the most reasonable way to reduce portfolio risk.
Monetary and Fiscal Policies
The foremost objective of fiscal policy is to balance the macroeconomic system. It directly affects personal income, and since revenue is an integral part of the retirement plan, fiscal changes can accelerate or slow down the retirement process. An increase in income tax can reduce the likelihood of retirement, as the funds accumulated will not be sufficient for this purpose (Zhao & Wang, 2022). Moreover, government costs can likewise affect savings because the higher the tax rate at the national level, the lower the wages people earn, and their savings increase more slowly.
Monetary policy directly affects inflation and, therefore, income and retirement plans. A loosening of monetary policy may increase the wealth of the wealthiest, but it likewise supports the incomes of the rest of the population by reviving economic activity. At the same time, a change toward a stricter policy could reduce payments, making it necessary to recalculate the pension plan and spread more profits over a more significant number of tasks. Monetary policy can also affect the possibility of early retirement; thus, the pension plan may not be realized. Therefore, it is essential to consider both monetary and fiscal policy as a possible threat or improvement to the terms of the pension plan and its implementation. Moreover, savings impact a person’s willingness to retire, and fluctuations in interest or tax rates make savings unstable (Dong & Zheng, 2019). This causes investments in 401(k) or IPA plans or their limits to drop and the savings process to be disrupted. Therefore, knowing exactly how many assets will be accumulated by a certain age is impossible because policy changes have significant risks.
The Value of Money
The concept of the value of money over time is based on the following basic principle: a dollar now is worth more than a dollar in the future. For example, its price will change as it can be invested, bringing additional profits. This principle is critical in all financial theory and investment analysis. The concept’s essence is that money’s value changes over time, taking into account the rate of return in the money market and the securities market (Dong & Zheng, 2019). It means that if a person has invested part of his savings, then, later on, they will multiply, thereby increasing the total return.
Conclusion
Pension is a macroeconomic term that, in correlation with wages, can be used to assess the country’s economic development level. This indicator is influenced by various factors, including decisions made by the legislative and executive authorities. Every person should evaluate subjective and objective indicators when planning a pension plan. It requires constant improvement of financial literacy and consideration of all short and long-term risk factors.
References
Bilbiie, F., Monacelli, T., & Perotti, R. (2021). Fiscal policy in Europe: controversies over rules, mutual insurance, and centralization. Journal of Economic Perspectives, 35(2), 77-100. doi: 10.1257/jep.35.2.77
Dong, Y., & Zheng, H. (2019). Optimal investment of DC pension plan under short-selling constraints and portfolio insurance. Insurance: Mathematics and Economics, 85, 47-59.
Wang, H., Huang, J., & Yang, Q. (2019). Assessing the financial sustainability of the pension plan: The role of fertility policy adjustment and retirement delay. Sustainability, 11(3), 88.
Wang, S., & Lu, Y. (2019). Optimal investment strategies and risk-sharing arrangements for a hybrid pension plan. Insurance: Mathematics and Economics, 89, 46-62.
Zhao, H., & Wang, S. (2022). Optimal investment and benefit adjustment problem for a target benefit pension plan with Cobb-Douglas utility and Epstein-Zin recursive utility. European Journal of Operational Research, 301(3), 1166-1180.